Thread by @lymanstoneky

worth noting that cumulative COVID cases and deaths in Australia remain waaaaaay lower than the US. kinda weird to look at those two lines and think they are similar!

https://twitter.com/darelmass/status/1478933574195761152

Like, "we kept COVID at nearly zero until a weaker variant came along and most people were vaccinated" is.... a huge success! That's the goal! That's what winning looks like!

After April or May 2020, true "COVID Zero" was never on the table, and the rational goal of policy was always "keep things okay until widespread vaccination makes the mortality cost of widespread exposure acceptably low."

That the escape variant also happens to be less lethal and super contagious is just icing on the cake! Tons of people getting acquired immunity from a weaker variant after they've been given vax support is a great outcome!

Now obviously there's gonna be another bump of deaths here in January, but it's not gonna be anywhere near last winter's wave, and in the future we can expect recurrent waves to have ever-lower yields of deaths-per-infections.

Which means countries like Australia will be able to open up without experiencing deaths on the level of e.g. the US. They'll have just skipped the mortality cost of COVID we paid here.

That's an unmitigated endorsement of the Australian approach!

I think I'm in a very unusual position right now where I'm one of the *very few* people who has been a major COVID hawk for much of the last 18 months who is now actually pivoting towards COVID-is-over on the basis of the evidence and options.

Seems like we've got a lot of people who were always very dove-ish on COVID policy now claiming vindication (after a million deaths and the rise of a new milder variant, lol), and also a lot of hawks who just cannot break the addiction to meddlesomeness and fear.

Then there's me over here saying we should have had quarantine camps in April and May of 2020 and also it's absolutely nuts that places are going into lockdown right now what the heck people what on earth is your possible end goal here????

For the curious, here's excess death in the US.

Here in Quebec all non-essential businesses are closed, we have an actual *curfew* (no leaving your house 10 PM-5 AM), my classes have been moved online, and schools are I think delaying start as well!

https://twitter.com/DarylVautour/status/1479126532056563727

Places of worship are closed, vaccine passports everywhere, etc. We are in almost as intense a lockdown right now as has been applied anywhere in the western world after June of 2020!

Which is why I have been angry-tweeting about Quebec COVID stats for the last few days!

Speaking of, a reminder that I made a forecast of Quebec hospitalizations a week or so ago! I made three scenarios: one where Case->ICU yield rates return to historic levels, one where they flatline at current low rates, and one where they keep falling.

On January 5, my 3 models predicted that there would be either 195, 252, or 425 ICU cases: 195 for the "Case->ICU yield keeps falling," 425 for the "return to normal" and 252 for in-between.

On January 5, there were 207 ICU cases.

My low scenario is looking pretty good!

Here's the rate at which official cases yield people in the ICU (with appropriate lags).

It keeps falling! Because the vaccines work and Omicron is somewhat less severe!

Just insane to me that we've got like 90% vaccinated in Quebec and yet we're acting like it's the apocalypse or something.