This would be very worth doing, but we'd be better off replacing the Gross Receipts Taxes with a VAT
GRTs are just not ideal. The exemption would encourage firms contort themselves to stay below $2 million, while the tax itself would encourage excessive vertical integration, creating a weird bias against medium sized firms for no real reason
In an ideal world, it'd be nice if we had a federally administered VAT that states and municipalities could piggy back on the infrastructure of, so if you want to do state single payer, just have the feds bump up the VAT in that area and transfer the extra revenue to them
Given political constraints though, it'd be worth trying to do more employer side payroll taxes that mimic the cost of private health insurance. Or even just an Employer Medicaid Buy In - you could kill a ton of private insurance pretty quick that way
Also - the key to getting state single payer done is juicing the federal government for as much subsidy money as possible. First step should be a plan like this to maximize ACA subsidies. We could double the amount of federal money coming in without taxes peoplespolicyproject.org/2018/04/13/a-s…
Then the second step is getting a waiver to redirect this larger pile of money into single payer. And make sure that employer tax/premium contributions to single payer qualify for equivalent treatment as the federal tax exclusion for private employer sponsored insurance
Private insurance has a ton of built in systematic advantages despite being worse on the merits, so finding ways of leveling the playing field and minimizing new taxes needed will be the most important thing. Probably not something you achieve in one fell swoop

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More from @jdcmedlock

8 Dec 21
One thing I'm very sure about my dad is that if he had grown up in the internet age, he would have gone down as one of the greatest poasters of all time.
He had his own unmistakable aesthetic you could see in everything he wrote. His sense of humor never left him, even when Parkinsons took his ability to speak, he would take his time, typing out a word per minute at best, just to share a silly joke. He never stopped posting.
I still can't piece his entire life story together - he didn't like to stay in one place long, he never made much money, he had a knack for finding the weirdest living spaces, whether it was someone's porch, a trailer in a backyard, or a closet.
Read 8 tweets
20 Jan 21
My take on the back and forth about the advanced child tax credits is that, as it was proposed in the AFA, where payments are only sent if your tax liability is negative, it seems likely to lead to administrative problems. 1/?
peoplespolicyproject.org/2021/01/20/why…
But if we did actually copy Canada and assess eligibility entirely based on prior year income, & send checks out to everyone below the high phase-out, that would be fine. It’s not ideal because it’s less responsive to income changes, but administratively it’d avoid major fumbles
In Canada, 6% of people on last-ditch social assistance do not receive the full child benefit because it’s based on prior income. This isn’t great, & may be worse in the US where our social assistance is worse, but it’s a relatively small number of people jrf.org.uk/file/36835/dow…
Read 4 tweets
18 Jan 21
The UK provides an instructive example of the administrative challenges of distributing means-tested tax credit benefits on a monthly basis. In 2003 they implemented a big Child Tax Credit and Working Tax Credit. The design is in many ways similar to current US proposals
Immediately, they ran into major overpayment problems. About 1/3rd of all benefits were overpaid, and there were reports of confusion and hardship as people had to pay back welfare debt at the end of the year
Policymakers admitted that they were blindsided by how many changes in circumstance people had over the year
Read 6 tweets
14 Jan 21
No one should be in poverty simply because they have kids! Great report out today from PPP on designing a universal child benefit.
peoplespolicyproject.org/2021/01/14/now…
Current child tax credits are designed to exclude the bottom 10% of tax units, and partially exclude even more. Image
The current tax credit regime reduces poverty a lot on paper, but this is in part due to gaming the head count poverty metric. Giving a lot of money to people right around the cutoff, while none to people in deep poverty, creates a misleading picture of effectiveness Image
Read 5 tweets
27 Dec 20
My (not particularly hot) takes:

The left has a tendency towards negativity, which 9 times out of 10 leads to the correct analysis, but also leads to missing real successes like expanded UI
That’s how you could have people calling CARES the “worst bill in 25 years”. It also reflects a general lack of focus on cash welfare on some portions of the left
When it comes to actual politicians, I think they may have been cautious about bragging about the UI generosity for fear of raising the issue of essential workers getting paid less than unemployed people. And the implementation problems also made it hard to brag about
Read 5 tweets
8 Dec 20
After Covid, we should have a medical debt jubilee
Crazy stat: a majority of the civil arrests in eastern Idaho are over medical debt eastidahonews.com/2019/05/why-so…
27 year olds are the most likely age group to have medical debt, likely in part because that's the year people are removed from their parents health insurance healthaffairs.org/doi/abs/10.137…
Read 4 tweets

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