The leading edge of the next monsoon charged atmospheric river has arrived in the Middle East and the next phase of unusual possibly extreme winter weather in the region is about to commence.
The GFS 16-day rain forecast predicts a very similar amount of rain to the last major phase in this extended period of intense #ArabianStorms which finished 2 days ago.
For a recap of what has happened so far, this thread from this morning looks at the period 17 December to today, and tracks the Atlantic-Amazon sourced atmospheric river involved in all this all the way to China.
After the atmospheric river coming in across the Sahara from the West intensified, a storm arrived from the North West over Egypt.
The interaction brought rain across Egypt, the Levant, Iraq, Saudi Arabia the Gulf, Iran, Oman the UAE and Pakistan.
Images above show now, and the 11th of January (next Tuesday) as the storm front arrives in Libya.
The positioning and timing of elements in this event will evolve, but based on the simulation model runs is expected to be very similar. This image shows Sunday 9th.
In this image you see the influence of the storm pulling the atmospheric river north over Sinai, Israel and the Levant. The first significant rainfall event is expected to be here on Sunday. The following day the storm pushes the river south over the Red Sea.
Rain is possible during this period across the Levant (incl. Jordan and Syria) in the last event the heaviest rains tended to fall over night as the temperature fell. The impact intensity depends a lot on the arrival time and strength of the storm.
On Tuesday and Wednesday rain is forecast in central Saudi and possibly in Medina.
A 2nd Atmospheric pulse is expected to arrive Thursday 13th and we then see a continuous event for several days, moving southwards across central Saudi and over Gulf from Iraq to the UAE.
Iran which was badly hit in the first event due to its mountains increasing rain intensity, is expected to again receive the highest levels of rain.
The final act takes place over 2 days (16-18 Jan) over the empty quarter, in Yemen, the UAE, Oman, Eastern Iran and Balochistan.
Note that this is not an official forecast and I am not a meteorologist. All residents in the broader region should prepare for disruption and listen closely to weather warnings from official sources. Further flooding is likely. Tornadoes were seen last time and may be again.
. @amanpour It’s not just the IDF that responds to press questions with rote answers that are clearly false.
The U.S. @StateDept has been doing exactly the same thing throughout the war for 14 months. Parroting the line “Israel has a right to defend itself” when everyone in the planet knows this is not true.
I know you must know this also. We all do.
I commend your report but I ask you and your network to please go further and actively oppose this war. And to call for it to end.
It is clear now in recent statements from Trump and Netanyahu that another war is intended in the Middle East by the U.S. and Israel. Its advocates will stood start lining up to beat the drums for this war.
Please @CNN, it is now time to end all of this.
The question we all have then is “When will the U.S. bring this evil to an end?”
A war with Iran 21 years after the horrific war in Iraq will have devastating consequences beyond imagining.
In its unwavering support for Netanyahu these past 14 months the U.S. is in the process now of destroying itself. Just as Israel is, or has done already.
The first speaker in this star studded panel here is sober clear and damning.
“… featuring Mustafa Barghouti, Mads Gilbert, Ilan Pappe, and Ingrid Fiskaa – discusses and critically explores three key areas: the present moment where Gaza remains under constant genocidal attack from Israel; the so-called “legitimacy” of the rules-based order (including but not limited to international law) that’s supposed to prevent or stop such violence; and the future of rebuilding Gaza in a way that actually honours the hopes, dreams and aspirations of the Palestinian people.”
The panel is moderated by Paul Salvatori, senior producer and presenter at TRT World.
As Christmas and the New Year approach, reflection, both self and outward looking are part of the zeitgeist for the faithful throughout the world.
As it stands this Christmas in Bethlehem will be the “second Christmas during an ongoing Genocide”. Placed in quote marks here because it seems hard to reconcile with reality.
How can this still be continuing?
How is it that the @Statedept even now - 15 months after October 7th and more recently the defeat of both Hezbollah and Assad - is still mostly saying “Israel has a right to defend itself. As massacres of 50-80 Gaza civilians - predominantly women and children - continue to occur on a daily basis.
Could there at least be a Christmas and New Years Truce? A brief silencing of the guns, a break from the endless massacre of innocents via fire-from-the-sky, as if Gaza were now Mordor.
It is certainly already nearly as desolate.
Someone needs to ask Bibi Netanyahu who is unusually and nearly singularly responsibility for all of this. WHEN AND HOW DOES THIS END?
There is a new chapter on the story of Mosab Hassan Yousef.
This is the original production of this. But he will soon be known far better than he was when Chris Cuomo brought his story to life here back in December 2023 at the outset of the war, in the wake of January 7th.
Hamas Founder's Son Turned Israeli Spy - Mosab Hassan Yousef, "The Green... youtu.be/llJxz1pAlQQ?si… via @YouTube
“Hamas’s Aspiration is global”
“The Muslim Brotherhood is Here in the United States.”
For clarification Mosab Hassan is unquestionably completely genuine and in is views, and like me he is a pacifist when it comes to saving human life from conflict. And this as he articulates very very clearly remains his view.
And for this reason - notwithstanding the fact that this latest broadcast is extremely triggering, and will likely soon become very controversial, is also very important.
The target of this messaging is Americans. Not me.
And probably not you, even though a large portion of my followers are in the U.S.
“The Neighbours & friends of Syria, and international solidarity movements, and all people of good consciousness need to develop a counter strategy to the ongoing U.S-Israel War Drumming - that is now clearly moving U.S. towards a 2003 repeat of the 2nd Gulf War.”
“The media's role in a democratic society in general is to provide the public with an informed basis upon which they can exercise their democratic rights to lobby, and express their views on what should happen to their elected representatives. And nothing changes during wartime.
When measured by this standard I would conclude that the media both here in New Zealand and everywhere else in the Western World – with the exception of the Internet – has failed spectacularly to do its job.”
The desire of Genocide -Pro clueless highly paid American pundits to misrepresent current historical events as they unfold in real time in the global real-Politik is far from surprising, but this take from Bill Kristol is about as daft as it is possible to be.
Syria’s HTS & Türkiye led coup which has toppled Assad cane out of the blue. It was not an American-Israeli plot but rather a deftly delivered victory for justice that will have the effect of heading off the U.S. clash with Iran that the genocidal maniac who remains in Power in Israel, for now anyway, had planned.
This will not now be the next chapter in the story of Middle Eastern turmoil. Instead we will now see a flourishing of Middle Eastern led political reform that may finally rid the region of the power designs of the Western Powers “Great Game” who will soon become irrelevant in the region.
Thread….
I shall not bother to decide Kristol’s incoherent burbling except to remark that he is missing the real story here.
Arab’s just liberated Arabs in Arabia - as ought to be the case. Whether this was the clear intent of the actions and actors whose planning led up to this moment of clarity in geopolitical history is unclear, but the result is clear.
Syrians are now free. And western powers have been rendered irrelevant except to the extent that they are able to render assistance to the new Free Arab State of Syria in coming months and years. /2
The shear speed with which the events unfolded in Syria was and remains breathtaking. As if perhaps divinely directed.
Even Netanyahu’s response - to bomb Damascus- whilst monstrous in both it’s paranoia and execution is positive, in that it has now ruled Israel completely out of the process of rebuilding Syria which will soon commence.
Netanyahu openly proclaimed his messianic ambition in New York to a Nearly empty UNGA assembly meeting hall, his vision of a greater Israel that included Syria. And no doubt he remains enthralled to these ideas. But by bombing Damascus he just ruled himself out as a partner for peace in the region. /3
If you listen/watch you will doubtless come to the conclusion that nobody knows for sure:
1. What exactly has happened in Syria, who backed who…
2. nor what the end game in this HTS launched renewed Civil War in Syria will look like.
3. But there are a lot of interesting theories.
Domino effect? Assad's allies stretched thin as Syrian rebels pounce • F... youtu.be/ZZN1nek4aTg?si… via @YouTube
From my perspective a useful rubric to analyse this is who benefits from this.
The penultimate French speaker - before the American who closed (presumably with a conventional foggy bottom perspective - I.E pro Israel when asked by Picard who is responsible gave I think the clearest answer.
“Ask the Americans” then pointed out that this development comes hot on top of the ceasefire in Lebanon which is far from secure.
The debate is exactly that and all speakers are experts in different aspects of the Syrian Question and the players. Which include.
- the rebel group whose lightning speed taking of Aleppo HTS/formerly Al Nusra over the last 4 days initiated this new crisis currently in the north of Syria but which HTS and other anti Assad forces in Syria appear to be intent on heading to Damascus to displace Assad.
Note: As you can see here (map) Damascus is just north of due east of the Israel-Lebanon border south east of Beirut & very close to Israel. (Check out the 1967 war & Angolan Heights to find out why)