Thread by @Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of January 7th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.76 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

NSW R_eff as of January 7th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.76 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.80 ± 0.09
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 2.02 ± 0.13

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 2.00 ± 0.09
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 1.78 ± 0.10

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

The Hunter region: R_eff = 1.82 ± 0.20

Illawarra region: R_eff = 2.47 ± 0.25

Western New South Wales: R_eff = 2.74 ± 0.45

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Cases in NSW if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sat: 39616 36400—42891
Sun: 42295 38653—46009
Mon: 44628 40552—48689
Tue: 46409 42046—50805
Wed: 47639 43051—52281
Thu: 48209 43493—52928
Fri: 48111 43385—52812

Doubling time is 6.1 days.