Thread by @andrewflood

936 #Covid19Ireland hospital cases today Jan7 is 137% last Friday but for the 1st time fewer than this day last year which had 1022. There were more admissions 161 this year V 131 last year but shorter lengths of stay mean numbers in hospital are now less with 3 day plateau/1

972 new hospital cases this week is 141% previous but after a long period of every day increase this to has plateaued over last 3 days - too early to call a trend but certainly welcome in comparison with the alternative which had us heading for 1700 is hospital by Thursday /2

Underlying this is a fall in the proportion of cases going to hospital, New hospital cases in week are 0.91% cases, 1st time that's fallen under 1% and for periods in recent months it was four times that rate (we'd have 4,000 in hospital now at that mid October rate) /3

A note of caution - hospitalisations are still rising across England so although these couple of days look like a plateau being reached we are only starting to hit period where intergenerational xmas mixing *may* generate a lot more hospital cases /4

https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1479396101803638786?s=20

I add that because the last couple of days data has given me hope for 'the end of the pandemic as we have known it' (just like June and September, sigh) but while its clear much has changed its still a little early for such hopeful proclamations even before the next variant /5

We've still together a HPSC report with an age breakdown for cases in the New Year, closest so far is this slide from yesterdays HSE briefing which is encouraging /6

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1479164787288383495?s=20

More mostly goods news as numbers in ICU drop again from yesterday (there is one apparent death, hence mostly). 84 ICU is 98% last Friday and this day last year was 101 in ICU so again now doing better than last year & on a very different trajectory (flat/own rather than up)/15

39 new ICU this week is 105% previous week - so more cases still creating more ICU admissions but the cases more than doubled in the relevant lagged period /2

New ICU in week is 0.06% cases in week to 10 days earlier, 4.32% New Hospital Cases in week to 3 days earlier. The NHC continuing to fall while cases ratio may be plateauing may be a product of shortage of testing meaning lower case detection rate /3

Not much to sat about todays 20058 positive swabs as the 52.3% positivity rate gives us no indication of any peak being reached as yet. If you were to ignore that it looks like a swab plateau but I think that call can only be made in retrospect once positivity has fallen a lot /9

The case age data for the north today may be an early warning that things won't look so good in a week. Care home outbreaks are 170% last week, 527 over 80s infected in week is 6 times the week before xmas /10

HPSC just posted the data for wk 52 which ended January 2nd. Cases in over 65s has increase & doubled in 75-84 age group. Curiously Westmeath was the country with highest incidence, 3% of population testing positive that week /11

hpsc.ie/a-z/respirator…

Black dots are current hospital & ICU occupancy on NPHETs mid December Omicron scenarios -its fairly clear protection against ICU need was very much greater than the models assumptions (which is great) /12