Last Friday we saw 189,846 reported cases, 203 deaths, and 2,036 hospitalisations. Cases were a little inflated by some carry over, deaths, less so. Today, based on the last 7 and 14 days we can project what we may expect to happen (1)
On trend, deaths have been rising, we'd see 262 to 337 deaths. Data is all over the place, we may see lower than that, lets hope so. To get back to where we were before Christmas Eve we'd need -75 deaths. In other words, deaths are rising regardless (2)
Cases were a little inflated a week ago. The trend is still for a rapid rise, to stay on either the 7 or 14 day trend we'd need over 250k. That seems unlikely - testing is severely strained, I think we're at or near a testing plateau (3)
Also as we -still- exclude reinfections, hitting a new record every day becomes increasingly unlikely. Straight up, our infections data has always been problematic, its increasingly just garbage (4)
We won't get hospitalisations for today, of course, that data lags. On trend for the 3rd of January, the next day we'll get data for, look out for a figure towards 3k. Hospitalisations are rocketing (5)
So whether the trends we're on can continue, its just hard to say. It seems almost unthinkable. But to be honest -anywhere near- where we were last week is a crisis. (fin)
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