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Colin Angus

@VictimOfMaths

7 Jan

I hoped the number of COVID patients in London's hospitals had turned a corner, but seemingly not (yet).

The majority of COVID-positive patients in acute trusts are still being treated *for* COVID. And early signs that the number of patients 'with' COVID might be falling.

As a proportion of all COVID patients in London, 56% of them are being treated primarily for COVID. That's a big fall from the ~80% level we were seeing previously, but we might expect the line to head back up as case rates (hopefully) keep falling.

These figures are available for acute trusts only (i.e. those with an A&E department). This is what the figures look like for non-acute trusts - also rising, but a little more slowly.

Read 8 tweets

Colin Angus

@VictimOfMaths

7 Jan

I'm a little surprised at the number of high profile data visualisation people on here that I've seen dunking on this chart from the NYT.

We've seen (and I've made) a million boring line/area charts of COVID cases. It's refreshing to see somebody trying something new.

But more broadly than that, a lot of the criticism seems to miss (surprisingly, given some of the people doing it) the fact that there is no 'right' or 'wrong' way to visualise some data, just approaches which might be better or worse *at achieving a certain goal*.

We sometimes judge charts on the basis of whether they achieve the goal *we* want them to achieve without stopping to think whether that's the same thing the chart was designed to highlight.

Read 9 tweets

Colin Angus

@VictimOfMaths

6 Jan

We've done some really impressive work to get large swathes of the population boosted in recent weeks, but there are some pretty big inequalities in terms of booster coverage in England.

61 % of people in the least deprived areas compared to 35% in the most deprived.

Now maybe you're thinking "aah, but more deprived areas have younger populations, so you'd expect them to have lower booster uptake".

Yes but no but. Booster uptake consistently lower in more deprived areas *within* every age group.

I've no doubt local public health teams are doing everything in their power to address this, but they could do with more resources and not having to deal with nonsense like not knowing what their budget for this year is.

Read 4 tweets

Colin Angus

@VictimOfMaths

6 Jan

Omicron has really taken hold in the US, how worried should we be?

The US hasn't seen the nice decoupling of cases from admissions and deaths that we have in the UK. Partly because of lower testing (I believe), but also lower and less well targeted vaccination uptake.

@jburnmurdoch

This analysis from @jburnmurdoch shows the differential exposure to infection really well.

We know Omicron is good at evading 1 or 2 doses of vaccine, so all that light blue in older ages in the US is *bad*.

You can already see admissions tracking cases much more closely in the US in recent weeks. Hopefully the protection afforded against severe illness and death by 1 or 2 doses of vaccine against Omicron is still pretty good.

Read 4 tweets

Colin Angus

@VictimOfMaths

6 Jan

The ONS Infection Survey gives us a picture of the true prevalence of COVID that isn't biased by changes in testing guidance, behaviour or availability.

Pretty incredible how much higher it is with Omicron than in previous waves.

Some really interesting regional differences in the data too in terms of the dynamics in the waves last autumn/winter and then Delta and Omicron. Also clear how the NW is the next epicentre for Omicron after London.

Also very interesting differences by age. Prevalence of COVID in all age groups, bar secondary school kids, now much, *much* higher than in previous waves.

Read 4 tweets

Colin Angus

@VictimOfMaths

5 Jan

COVID case rates are still hard to interpret (because holidays), but I think the broad patterns are still worth looking at.

Changes in the past week here show cases rising in all age groups, but fastest in older, more vulnerable age groups.

(the latest day's data is promising, but I have low confidence that it tells us much about whether cases are actually falling or rising, so interpret with caution)

This is what those changes convert to in terms of absolute case rates. A really clear Omicron wedge, from people in their 20s up the age groups.

Read 15 tweets

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