another potentially weird jobs report from the looks of it

*U.S. DEC. PAYROLLS INCREASE 199,000; EST. 450,000

but

*U.S. DEC. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS TO 3.9% VS 4.2%
Also worth noting that average hourly earnings had a SOLID beat.

+0.6% m/m, compared with estimates for +0.4%
+4.7% y/y, compared with estimates for +4.2%

ECI, which Powell singled out as a crucial data point, is coming at the end of the month.
Now we're cookin'

5-year yields just topped 1.5%
just to close the loop on the weirdness of this report (h/t @Riccanomix)

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More from @BChappatta

7 Jan
I'VE SEEN ENOUGH.

Don't usually try to predict the Fed's exact moves, but this jobs report, combined with next week's inflation data that's expected to show 7.1% CPI and 5.4% core, will lead the Fed to prime markets for a March rate hike at this month's meeting.
I had written "green light" for March initially, but a certain someone beat me to the punch. 👁️

and now, this:

*U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 1.778%, HIGHEST SINCE JANUARY 2020
Read 5 tweets
5 Jan
~feels~ like the FOMC minutes due in 2 mins could be among the most market-moving of the past 2 years
I have the 5-year yield up on my screen, which is already starting to move a bit in anticipation
Here are the December FOMC minutes:

federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
Read 10 tweets
12 May 21
*U.S. APRIL CONSUMER PRICES INCREASE 0.8% M/M; EST. 0.2%
To recap:

Headline CPI: 4.2% y/y (highest since 2008), 0.8% m/m (highest since 2009)

Core CPI: 3% y/y (highest since 1996!!!), 0.9% m/m (highest since 1982!!!!!)

It's worth parsing the data, but there's no denying these are some big numbers. Image
Read 4 tweets
24 Mar 21
Yellen points to the drop in U.S. interest payments as a percentage of GDP as a reason that she still sees fiscal space, though notes "it certainly doesn't mean that anything goes."

"Longer-run, we do have to raise revenue to support permanent spending that we want to do."
Oh wow we just got a question on the significance of 2s10s hitting 160 basis points. Going mainstream!
Uh oh, Senator Elizabeth Warren is going after BlackRock.
Read 9 tweets
23 Mar 21
YELLEN: "In fact, I think we may see a return to full employment next year."
POWELL: "Our best view is that the effect on inflation will neither be particularly large nor persistent."
Janet Yellen getting her first round of combative questions from Republican congresswoman Ann Wagner.

Also asked Powell about "obvious inflationary pressures," citing lumber and gasoline prices.
Read 8 tweets
31 Dec 20
If 2020 has taught investors one thing, it’s that the Fed is all-powerful.

Except in fighting wealth inequality. A thread:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
At its core, the Fed sets the level of interest rates in the economy.

Low rates (now) = higher prices for stocks and risky assets = the wealthiest profit

Higher rates (circa 2018) = higher U.S. Treasury yields = those who can afford to save the most (i.e. the wealthy) profit
In other words, as long as you have a sizable amount of money to begin with, monetary policy on its own is a win-win.

It’s tempting to paint the Fed as a villain always looking out for Wall Street. In reality, higher rates and tighter policy are hardly a great wealth equalizer.
Read 15 tweets

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