Yellen points to the drop in U.S. interest payments as a percentage of GDP as a reason that she still sees fiscal space, though notes "it certainly doesn't mean that anything goes."

"Longer-run, we do have to raise revenue to support permanent spending that we want to do."
Oh wow we just got a question on the significance of 2s10s hitting 160 basis points. Going mainstream!
Uh oh, Senator Elizabeth Warren is going after BlackRock.
YELLEN: When it comes to FSOC, "the risks it focused on were ones having to do with open-end mutual funds that can experience massive withdrawals and be forced to sell off assets that could create fire sales. That is actually a risk that we saw materialize last spring in March."
I wrote about this risk in mutual funds last month.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Anyway, Yellen is unflappable as usual but seems to be getting a little frustrated with Warren, who is clearly trying to get BlackRock and its $9 trillion of assets on the FSOC's designation list.

Yellen: "An asset manager is very different than a bank."

home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/…
I guess Senator Kennedy follows global central banking closely. Mentioned the ECB, RBNZ and Turkey.
Woah!!! Yellen just yelled!!!

(Granted, it was to say "I'm sorry! I'm sorry!" and finish over Kennedy's interruptions.)
LOL Senate goes into a 20-minute recess, and Powell and Yellen are asked to stay on the line, just mute and turn off video.

Powell: "To be clear, are you saying we have to sit here until 12:30, or can we leave and come back?"

They are allowed to leave then come back.

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More from @BChappatta

23 Mar
YELLEN: "In fact, I think we may see a return to full employment next year."
POWELL: "Our best view is that the effect on inflation will neither be particularly large nor persistent."
Janet Yellen getting her first round of combative questions from Republican congresswoman Ann Wagner.

Also asked Powell about "obvious inflationary pressures," citing lumber and gasoline prices.
Read 8 tweets
31 Dec 20
If 2020 has taught investors one thing, it’s that the Fed is all-powerful.

Except in fighting wealth inequality. A thread:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
At its core, the Fed sets the level of interest rates in the economy.

Low rates (now) = higher prices for stocks and risky assets = the wealthiest profit

Higher rates (circa 2018) = higher U.S. Treasury yields = those who can afford to save the most (i.e. the wealthy) profit
In other words, as long as you have a sizable amount of money to begin with, monetary policy on its own is a win-win.

It’s tempting to paint the Fed as a villain always looking out for Wall Street. In reality, higher rates and tighter policy are hardly a great wealth equalizer.
Read 15 tweets
19 Nov 20
Wow. Major news coming out of the Treasury, as reported by @SalehaMohsin:

All emergency programs from the CARES Act will expire on Dec. 31. So that's:

Municipal Liquidity Facility
Main Street Lending Program
Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities
Oh also the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility.

There WILL be a 90-day extension of the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, Primary Dealer Credit Facility, Money Market Liquidity Facility and the Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility.

Moreover, Mnuchin is asking the Fed to return unused stimulus funds to the Treasury.

As I understand it, this would make it more difficult for President-elect Biden's Treasury Secretary to just "turn back on" the muni/corporate/Main Street facilities.
Read 6 tweets
17 Nov 20
The U.S. housing market is 🔥🔥🔥

In particular, record-low mortgage rates have encouraged a ton of refinancing. That's freed up a lot of cash for Americans across the country in the past several months.

But what happens now?

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Remember, the Fed is still adding $40 billion of MBS to its balance sheet each month. That's a ~net~ figure, so it's actually gobbling up closer to $100 billion each month and doing its best to suppress mortgage rates. Image
But long-term rates are (gradually) starting to rise.

If the refinancing wave is over, it's possible we'll start to see more subdued spending. Retail sales today increased by less than expected, for instance.

And Raphael Bostic has concerns too:

Read 4 tweets
3 Sep 20
With President Donald Trump ordering a review of funding of Democratic-run cities (or what a memo calls "anarchist jurisdictions"), now would be a good time to recall just how vital New York City is to the U.S. economy.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The nominal GDP of the NYC metro area is $1.8 trillion, or almost 10% of the overall output of America’s metropolises.

That's a greater share than 2009, even though other cities like Portland and Seattle (also targeted by the memo) grew faster during the expansion.
If you target New York City, you're aiming for Wall Street.

Finance still rules the Big Apple, even after the 2008 crisis.
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct 19
MILLENNIALS

You might think “avocado toast” or “participation trophies.” But they’re about to become the biggest adult cohort in America, and Wall Street wants to know if they can lead the U.S. economy (and stock market) to greater heights.

Thread!

bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-…
I worked with the masterful @hecharts to make graphics that provide a better sense of where millennials are at right now.

Using Fed data and other statistics, we can see how young Americans (under 35) now compare to those of the past. And how they compare to older generations.
@hecharts Some good news: Millennials are starting to make more money.

The unemployment rate has declined and wage growth has somewhat picked up in recent years. So median income is finally bouncing back after a big drop in the wake of the Great Recession.
Read 16 tweets

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