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Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

5 Jan

Like many numbers types, I tend to obsessively follow the Covid data. One big story, which will probably get more coverage soon, is FL's rapid rise in the dismal rankings 1/

These are 7-day averages, which are a lagging indicator during a surge; also, FL does only about half as much testing as NY. So the outbreak in FL is probably already worse than NY's 2/ coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracke…

The political relevance is obvious. Just a month or so ago, FL officials were boasting about their low case rate (never mind all those deaths earlier in 2021). Just days ago they were sneering at how NY, with all those restrictions, was leading the nation in cases 3/

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Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

2 Jan

Obviously this is a subjective take (which is fine!) but there are multiple reasons now to believe that reports of NYC's death were greatly exaggerated — and that's part of a larger story 1/ nytimes.com/2021/12/30/nyr…

Until Covid came along we were looking at a clear — and in some ways troubling — bifurcation of US economic geography. A knowledge economy "wanted" to concentrate in large, highly educated metros, leaving much of the heartland stranded 2/

Then came the virus, and for a little while people thought "density=death", and hence that the trend would reverse — although even then such movement as took place was largely to suburbs and exurbs of the big metros 3/

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Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

1 Jan

Do you share my sense of dread about the year ahead? If not, why not? 1/

At this point I'm not personally all that afraid of Covid. I do know vaxxed/boosted people who've had breakthrough cases, but both anecdotes and the available data say that these cases are usually mild. For those acting responsibly, we're down to normal-risks-of-life levels 2/

Longer term I'm terrified of climate change. But at this point that fear has been overtaken by the near-term risk of political catastrophe right here in America 3/

Read 7 tweets

Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

30 Dec 21

Price controls VERY occasionally have their uses — during wartime when rationing is rampant and perceived fairness/lack of profiteering are important 2/

There's also a *possible* argument for temporary controls to break a wage-price spiral that is persisting despite a weak economy — although making that work is so hard that it would be a strategy of last resort 3/

But we don't have a weak economy; we have inflation because we have a booming economy, with supply chains having trouble keeping up with the boom in goods consumption. And there's no hint of a wage-price spiral 4/

Read 4 tweets

Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

30 Dec 21

Covid time is a flat circle, especially in FL. Remember when the first Covid wave started in the NY area, and right-wingers demanded that we apologize to Ron DeSantis — just as infections and deaths soared across the Sunbelt? 1/

Then that episode went down the memory hole and it was back to anti-mask and social distancing being great — until the Delta wave wreaked havoc across the red states, FL in particular 2/

And then that wave subsided, and until a few days ago DeSantis's people were boasting about their low case rate as Omicron hit the Northeast first. Sure enough 3/

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Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

19 Dec 21

https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1472549628235206659

Absolutely. As someone who began my academic career in the late 70s, as equilibrium macro was tightening its grip, we all knew that fundamental business cycle issues were a minefield nobody with a reality sense would enter 1/

https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1472549628235206659

Try to publish anything in which monetary policy — let alone fiscal policy — did what it clearly did in the real world, and you would be blockaded from the journals and frozen out of appointment committees. You had to keep yr views private and build your reputation elsewhere 2/

International macro was a bit better because Rudi Dornbusch's work kept sticky-price macro respectable. But even so you had to frame your work as being abt exchange rates or financial crises and hope people didn't notice the Keynesian core 3/ krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/13/rud…

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