As someone who has dedicated a lot of time to studying and making #dataviz, let me explain why I dislike this NYT COVID graphic so much.

1/
It’s not that it’s a spiral - one of my favorite types of graphs is the Condegram spiral. (Named after Mark Conde)

It’s used in astronomy/meteorology to show changes the Earths magnetic fields (Kp index) & is used to visualize space weather.

2/
Another awesome spiral graph - and one of the best examples of #dataviz ever IMO - is the Rose plots by Florence Nightingale.

These 1858 plots show the causes of mortality in Crimean war & make a compelling case that for improving conditions (particularly shelter in winter).
3/
I also really like circular or spiral dendrograms. Take a look at this beautiful 🌀 graphic showing the evolution/domestication of yeast.

4/
So if I like 🌀graphics so much why do I viscerally dislike this NYT COVID spiral?
5/
The beauty of Nightingale & Conde’s spirals is they show *granular* data. You can clearly see the sudden changes in deaths or solar activity.

The NYT graphic *averages* the data - this makes it look smooth but it also makes the surges in cases more subtle & harder to see.
6/
Another problem is how the NYT graphic plots cases: above & below the spiral.

Compare to the Condegram, which only goes above the spiral.

Humans are better at perceiving height than width. Just look at these two lines of identical length. Which case is easier to discern?
7/
To illustrate this point: Compare the NYT COVID spiral to the same data presented linearly.

Is it obvious that the green🟩line is more than twice as wide as the blue 🟦 line?
8/
Bottom line: this plot from the NYT distorts the data through unnecessary smoothing & plotting on both the inside & outside of the spiral. This has the effect of making it hard to see the true increase in cases. A missed #dataviz opportunity.

9/9
As a bonus - here are few more of my favorite spiral #dataviz:

A 1850 plot by William Farr showing a (spurious) relationship between temperature & cholera cases in London. Correlation doesn't equal causation but it's still a compelling spiral graphic.
Not a spiral but another of my all time favorite ID dataviz examples: a plot showing polio cases in the US from 1931 to 1955.

Look how it combines granular data from each state/each week, along with monthly averages, and a heatmap for emphasis. 😍

journals.plos.org/plosbiology/ar…

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More from @nickmmark

5 Jan
The risk of myocarditis in kids after mRNA vaccines is MUCH lower than was initially feared.

12-15 yo: 265 cases/18.7m doses = 1.4 cases/100k kids vaxxed
5-11 yo: 12 cases/8m doses = 0.12 cases/100k kids vaxxed

For context, the risk of getting struck by⚡️ is ~0.2/100k per year.
People asking about 16-17 yo males:

Yes we know that group has slightly higher (but still objectively low 7/100k) rates of myocarditis

The point is that rates of myocarditis are *even* lower in younger kids (5-15 yo) Hence ACIP’s recommendation that kids *should* get boosted.
As for the VSD data. In this dataset, among people aged 12-17yo, they reported 39 cases out of 1.1m vaccinations. Most were mild.

This is higher but still objectively very rare: 3.2/100k

Again, this safety data was used by ACIP to justify a stronger “SHOULD” recommendation
Read 5 tweets
4 Jan
The US hits a million COVID cases in one day. Shit.
Hospitalizations also rising rapidly.

The key is that “milder” ≠ “mild”

A variant that is 2x infectious but 30% less virulent is still very bad & has potential to overload our hospitals.
Also important: most people in the hospital don’t have COVID but everyone’s care is harmed when we don’t have enough staff.

Some hospitals have >30% of acute care staff out sick.

Today is a bad day to need the cath lab or OR.
Read 4 tweets
27 Dec 21
Finally read the new @American_Heart AHA guidelines & they are absolute garbage.

Providers shouldn’t delay compressions or defib to put on PPE? Seriously?!? It takes like 10 seconds to put on an N95!

1/
Also were they afraid to actually *recommend* vaccination?

How about saying “vaccines substantially reduce the risk of DYING or getting SERIOUSLY ILL from COVID. All healthcare workers *should* be vaccinated”

Instead they went with a toothless “may reduce their risk” blah
2/
Others have pointed out the utter hypocrisy of people who are NEVER the first responders to a code writing this guideline. This is true.

Also, logistically, who do they think will respond to a code when a dozen RNs are home sick after being exposed at the last one?
3/
Read 5 tweets
25 Dec 21
Nothing conveys so much scientific ignorance so concisely as “Dandelion 22.7pH”
It’s a common misconception that you can’t have a pH above 14.

You actually CAN have a strong base with pH >14 (or an acid with a pH <0). It’s just super duper hard to dissolve that much base in water.

🧪 Let’s look at what it would take to make a BASIC solution with pH=22!
1/
First off what do we mean when we say BASIC?

I guess it could be any of these things…
2/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 19 tweets
25 Dec 21
Doing a coding refresher while my kids were watching a movie, resulted in an epic crossover: Home Alone ICD10

First the title. 3 options:
Z62.29 Other upbringing away from parents
Z60.2 Problems related to living alone
T76.02XA Child neglect or abandonment, initial encounter
1/
The movies opens with household chaos. The protagonist (Kevin) is bullied by his older Brother “Buzz”.

Don’t worry there’s not one but two ICD10 codes for this:
1️⃣Y07.41 Sibling, perpetrator of maltreatment
2️⃣F93.9 Childhood emotional disorder, unspecified
2/
Kevin fears that Fuller (played by his real life brother Kieran) will wet the bed.

You can code this concern from Fuller’s perspective or from Kevin’s:
1️⃣N39.44 Nocturnal enuresis
2️⃣W55. contact with urine of unspecified mammal

3/
Read 32 tweets
23 Dec 21
More good news! FDA authorizes another oral COVID treatment today: molnupiravir

A short 🧵 about how molnupiravir (MOLN) works & how/when to use it.

1/
fda.gov/news-events/pr…
Molnupiravir is a pro-drug that is converted to the ribonucleoside analog N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC).

Phosphorylated NHC is incorporated into SARS-CoV-2 RNA by the viral RNA polymerase. This causes many mutations in the virus (“viral error catastrophe”), preventing replication.
2/
But wait aren’t mutations bad? Isn’t Omicron a bunch of mutations that make it more infectious?

The distinction is the *number* of mutations.

RNA viruses are error prone - accumulating on average 1-5 mutations with every copy.

MOLN induces many DOZENS of mutations at once.
3/
Read 18 tweets

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