Share this page!

Dr. Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
Twitter logo
7 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
With 2021 annual temperatures (nearly) in, its time for my first prediction of where 2022 will end up!

I find that 2022 is most likely to be the 6th warmest on record, with a very small chance of being the warmest year on record and a small chance of below the 8th warmest.
This uses GISTEMP, and is based on a multivariate regression model using the prior year, past three months, and El Nino/La Nina (ENSO) conditions for the past 6 months and the ENSO forecast for the next 6 months. Here is how it does for past years (red forecast, blue actual):
Note that I'm estimating December 2021 temperature for GISTEMP for this analysis based on the difference between November 2021 and December 2021 temperatures in ERA5 (which has already reported its December numbers).
My prediction is quite well in line with the @metoffice forecast metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press…, but notably lower than the latest one by @ClimateOfGavin:

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Dr. Zeke Hausfather

Dr. Zeke Hausfather Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @hausfath

Dr. Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
4 Jan
The first official 2021 global surface temperature results are now out from @CopernicusECMWF.

2021 was the 5th warmest year on record in their dataset. It was a bit cooler than the past few years due to a moderate La Nina event, but well in-line with the long-term warming trend Image
2021 was effectively tied with 2018 and 2015 in ERA5, and will likely end up between 5th and 7th warmest in all the surface temperature datasets once they are out. Data through December for both the global and Europe can be found here: climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/…
Global temperatures are strong effected by El Nino and La Nina events, which is the primary driver of year-to-year variability on top of the long-term human-caused warming trend. You can think of it as a man walking a dog on the beach, as @neiltyson illustrated in @COSMOSonTV: Image
Read 5 tweets
Dr. Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
2 Jan
Germany and the UK both lead the world in renewables, representing 40% of their electricity in 2020.

But UK electricity emissions have fallen 70% since 1990, while Germany's have only fallen by 50%. UK has prioritized replacing coal, while Germany has shut down nuclear first.
This graph also exaggerates progress a bit given the anomalous nature of 2020; here is what it looks like if we just examine emissions through the (pre-pandemic) 2019.
Today Germany closed 3 of its remaining 6 nuclear reactors. Regardless of what you think of the economic viability of new nuclear reactors, closing down existing plants ahead of coal is hard to square with the idea of treating climate change like a crisis.
Read 4 tweets
Dr. Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
23 Dec 21
Some cautious climate optimism to end the year from @jtemple in @techreview. We are still far from meeting Paris goals, but the pace of replacing fossil fuels with clean energy has dramatically accelerated in recent years. technologyreview.com/2021/12/23/104…
A decade ago the world appeared on track for a hellish 4C or 5C warming. Today climate policy and technology have flattened that down to around 2.7C (2C-3.6C). carbonbrief.org/analysis-do-co…
This is still a potentially dire future for many human and natural systems – and uncertainties in the climate response to our emissions are decidedly not our friend! – but its much easier to see a path forward to well-below 2C than it was a decade ago.
Read 4 tweets
Dr. Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
15 Dec 21
Theres a big debate over reforming net metering for residential solar in California happening right now. Its a complex issue, but there are real equity concerns with the current system and – at least in principal – we could find a more effective way to subsidize solar.

A thread:
Its pretty clear the current system has some major problems – its subsidizes higher-income households at the expense of poorer renters and those who cannot afford solar. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2018/03/26/why…
Specifically, the way net metering works is that as a residential solar producer I get to effectively run my meter backwards, getting paid for any generation at my average electricity price (say, at 18 cents per kWh).
Read 12 tweets
Dr. Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
11 Dec 21
Tornadoes are, unfortunately, one of the extreme events where we have the least ability to attribute specific occurrences (or even long-term trends) to climate change. The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence, but some caution is warranted: carbonbrief.org/tornadoes-and-…
For example, there is little detectable trend in the number of notable (F1+) tornadoes over the past 70 years.
There has been an increase in the number of tornado clusters, but the link between that and changing climate conditions is unclear: science.org/doi/full/10.11…
Read 5 tweets
Dr. Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
7 Dec 21
Mining is an unavoidable part of a clean energy transition, but impacts can be minimized. All energy alternatives come at a cost: biofuels displace farmland / drive deforestation.
The question should not be "is there an impact", but "is it substantially better than fossil fuels"
For more on these challenges, see this excellent piece by my colleague @juzel_lloyd: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
"Mining is not a ‘clean’ business and by its very nature, there will always be some alteration to the environment. The real question is this: what are the trade-offs between the damages associated with mining for decarbonization and the damages of not reducing emissions?"
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @hausfath has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @hausfath!

Read all threads by @hausfath

:(