Thread by @nonewthing

Ivan Toney is a Pony—Why Arsenal Must Go For the Most Underrated Striker in the Premier League.

(Mother of All Threads)

With Aubameyang being phased out of the side and Alexandre Lacazette's contract running out, Arsenal need a new striker and have been linked to a long list of names within the past year, from Dusan Vlahovic to Tammy Abraham.

Arsenal's recent transfer business has been driven by

coaching requirements over popular or agent-led names. Some, like Aaron Ramsdale, were even the subject of controversy among supporters and in the media. However, Arsenal stuck to their guns and have since proved the doubters wrong.

Faced with another key transfer dilemma

at central forward, it is imperative that Arsenal stick to the same template—sense over sentiment—and bring in players who can do what Arteta wants at a high standard, irrespective of their name or reputation.

But what does Arteta want in a centre forward?

Stuff like this:

Arteta wants his centre forward to be comfortable dropping off the backline into deeper areas of the pitch in order to aid buildup and progression of the ball into the opposition third.

While Aubameyang is not notable for doing that, he has been necessarily involved for Arsenal.

That 'stuff', simple as it looks, is extremely important. Especially against compact and high pressing sides who will be aggressive against the first touch, give little space and time, and put options under pressure.

Executing under such scenarios is vital to dominance.

Aubameyang has been successful at linking play especially against Aston Villa and Tottenham, but he is not reliable at it nor very consistent.

The role requires great technical quality, a good appreciation of space, general intelligence, mental alertness, ball retention, rhythm,

a good first touch and an ability to resist physical pressure.

The former captain has been serviceable, especially when he has large spaces to operate in but Arsenal have had to surround him with players who have more responsibility to link play and aid progression when he plays

Since Alexandre Lacazette's introduction into the side, the difference between him and Aubameyang at that role has been stratospheric, leading to overall better dynamics: quicker interplay, more movement,

better ball retention in the opposition third, more opportunities for others to get into shooting situations.

In the above clip, Lacazette shows for the ball, glances quickly behind to check for possible incoming pressure, realizes he has space and time on the ball, waits a bit

to let Martinelli get ahead with the ball and successfully picks out the run with a line splitting pass.

That has been the difference for Arsenal's attack. Lacazette is more of a natural at linking play and finding others than Aubameyang is. He understands the effects of his

movements on the opposition backline and has the technical quality to exploit it should he be with the ball. His profile has also allowed Arsenal to play Gabriel Martinelli who is a prototypical modern inside-forward—something which would have been more difficult with Aubameyang.

This is not all Arteta wants from his centre forward, though. Very often, Arsenal try to bypass pressure from deep setpieces (goalkicks, throw-ins, freekicks) and in general play by going long. The idea is for the receiver to win it and help the team get out against a high press.

Arsenal also go long from goalkicks even if there isn't much pressure because they believe they have the structure and physical condition against most teams to win knock-downs and second balls that help to generate attacking situations high up the pitch with a counterpress.

This is extremely important because Arsenal have struggled for a while to successfully generate meaningful reception on long balls with Aubameyang usually shy and Lacazette not an exact fit for the role.

Arsenal have had to direct long kicks towards the flanks at times, which is

a less probable area to successfully capitalize on those.

Long kicks are a big tool Arsenal use to get out of a high press but while they have had notable success with it against City, they have struggled to receive and capitalize in many other games (Brighton and Liverpool)...

As a result, an ideal Arteta centre forward must be aerially dominant. Both Aubameyang and Lacazette have not fit too well into this requirement despite Arsenal repeatedly trying with the former.

Aerial dominance as well as technical quality and precision in possession

are therefore the two major requirements that Arsenal would need of any CF, on top of other admirable qualities they may have. Some other fundamental qualities would also be physical intensity, an ability to play with back to goal, as well as top instincts in the penalty box.

Meet Ivan Toney.

The 25-year-old 6'2 (187CM) tall Brentford striker is the perfect fit for all Arteta wants to do at the extremely high standards Arsenal would want them to be at.

First, let's take a look at his ability to bring others into play.

The below clip, against Liverpool, is astonishing.

It is brilliant ball reception, evasion, deception and pass selection, all consecutively.

Notice how David Raya launches similarly to Aaron Ramsdale.

Another key thing to note is Toney's patience and maturity in possession.

A true creative or playmaker has this particular distinction with their actions on the ball: timing.

A good scouting hint is to not focus more on the range of a player's passing than its timing

Toney consistently shows great timing and rhythm with the ball, just like Lacazette

The exact same traits are shown here again.

After winning a duel with a Wolves player, Toney holds his cards tight until his teammate gets in a good position behind the Wolves defence. If he had released earlier, the Wolves defence would have dealt with it in all probability.

Toney is also extremely adept at one-touch football, displaying great technical quality and awareness with each instance.

This is a consistent trait of his.

Here's Toney doing it again, under pressure.

And again...

One touch Toney! He assists the opening goal against Liverpool with a flick.

Toney also enjoys the art of deception!

Fakes, distracts, deceives...

Toney has the ability to make things happen from setpiece situations.

Having received a warning from Twitter, I won't be uploading any more short videos but Toney is a master at creating something from nothing by his consistent ability to find teammates, and sometimes just from one touch. Even Lacazette does not boasts this ability.

As recently as November, Toney was one of the most creative strikers in the league.

There is no doubt about his ability to link play. He does it against the best sides, no problem.

https://twitter.com/Squawka/status/1455221279674482694?t=xbIJqbElg3aaZ42_vNYNGQ&s=19

Ivan Toney is also one of the best in the air.

To demonstrate this: against Virgil Van Dijk and Joel Matip, both of whom are monsters with a combined average of 92% success in air duels, Ivan Toney won 9 aerial duels.

Here's a link to a video of it.

Remember those Van Dijk long balls out to Mane and Salah whenever Liverpool are facing a high press?

Ivan Toney singlehandedly ensures that Arsenal becomes 'unpressable' with his ability to simply win whatever Ben White and Ramsdale sends his way against any centreback.

There are many knock-off effects of Toney's aerial prowess: defensively and offensively from setpieces, Toney is a weapon. He will effectively make Arsenal one of the biggest threats in the air in England.

With Tierney, Saka, Martinelli and Odegaard's delivery, Toney will thrive

Big questions have been asked of Toney's ability to score goals. But, as you can see from the videos, the pony isn't always in the penalty box. He is the one responsible for getting his team up the pitch and finding them with the ball.

With 3.94 touches per match, Toney ranks at

13% among all strikers in Europe's Top 5 leagues at touching the ball in the box.

He is not getting chances to shoot and the chances he gets are far away from goal.

Despite that, Ivan Toney is ONE OF THE BEST FINISHERS in the Premier League. His shots are of extreme quality.

Anyone who has seen Toney shoot can testify to what I'm saying. He is absolutely ridiculous at striking a ball. I cannot stress how good he is.

He is on the same level as Vlahovic and Adam Armstrong at striking a ball. This lends him power to overperform xG like the two do.

Scoring as a striker is basically distillable to smart movement to receive and get first to the ball as well as ballstriking that lets your shots rip past the keeper. The former is more important than the latter, but the latter is important if you are a WC striker.

Basically, Toney is a sleeping giant at goalscoring if he's used in that role.

He is for instance a better poacher than Diogo Jota is. With a skillset that rivals that of Lacazette and Firmino, the Brentford star is one of the most complete strikers available in the game.

At 25 years old, able to perform both Aubameyang's and Lacazette's role to a high level, and available for the relatively cheap range of about 35-50 million, Arsenal will do really well to pick up the next potential gem in England.

He fits the culture and criteria, having

fought his way up the football ladder just like Martin Odegaard, Benjamin White, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Aaron Ramsdale. His signing will also allow Arsenal to concentrate resources in other positions as well as give time for the many young strikers they have to develop.

Thanks to Twitter for forcing me to end my thread prematurely.

Some of the images/vizzes I used are not mine and full credit to whoever made them. If you can see this please identify yourself so I can properly credit.

If you can read and interpret vizzes

This one is thanks to @JakeEntwistle.

Ivan Toney has changed how he plays for Brentford...

He has basically switched from a poacher who overperforms xG to... a creative foil.

Smooth transformation.