I love data.
I'm constantly assessing risks & benefits on data.
But here's a secret:
Data-driven approaches are only helpful when you have reasonable quality data.
Bad data = bad decisions.
In a pandemic, bad decisions = unimaginable damage.
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/emily-oster-…
I'm constantly assessing risks & benefits on data.
But here's a secret:
Data-driven approaches are only helpful when you have reasonable quality data.
Bad data = bad decisions.
In a pandemic, bad decisions = unimaginable damage.
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/emily-oster-…
It's critical to adjust your assessments as the data change.
Schools may well have been safe enough in late August and managed ok through the fall given the case levels.
Even if high quality data were captured during the fall they tell us nothing about the safety NOW.
Schools may well have been safe enough in late August and managed ok through the fall given the case levels.
Even if high quality data were captured during the fall they tell us nothing about the safety NOW.
What we are facing now is nothing like what we have faced before in this pandemic.
I suspect even schools with very strong mitigation measures will struggle to stay open with omicron spreading this quickly and at such high levels.
nytimes.com/2022/01/06/opi…
I suspect even schools with very strong mitigation measures will struggle to stay open with omicron spreading this quickly and at such high levels.
nytimes.com/2022/01/06/opi…
And indeed, schools are already being forced into unplanned closures because there are not enough uninfected staff to run the schools.
Any transmission that does occur in schools in the days they are open will only make this problem worse.
mercurynews.com/2022/01/06/cov…
Any transmission that does occur in schools in the days they are open will only make this problem worse.
mercurynews.com/2022/01/06/cov…
Planned closures for several days/weeks allow parents to plan ahead.
Schools can plan for continued instruction (eg online or paper packets) & other services (eg meal delivery by bus).
Unplanned closures OTOH, lead to chaotic responses and the worst outcomes for everyone.
Schools can plan for continued instruction (eg online or paper packets) & other services (eg meal delivery by bus).
Unplanned closures OTOH, lead to chaotic responses and the worst outcomes for everyone.
Those claiming "Schools Should Not Close", even for a short time argue that the harms are far greater than the benefits.
Perhaps that was true in the fall when cases were relatively low.
But now?
When infections are nearly guaranteed?
usnews.com/news/health-ne…
Perhaps that was true in the fall when cases were relatively low.
But now?
When infections are nearly guaranteed?
usnews.com/news/health-ne…
Link for Indiana story fox59.com/news/indiana-g…
Beyond the direct effect of COVID infections on kids, who they bring infections home to also matters.
Over 140,000 children have lost a caregiver in the pandemic.
I think we can all agree that loosing a parent or caregiver is a major long-term harm.
vox.com/the-highlight/…
Over 140,000 children have lost a caregiver in the pandemic.
I think we can all agree that loosing a parent or caregiver is a major long-term harm.
vox.com/the-highlight/…
Beyond the scope of this thread, but it's important to note that while most kids do well, COVID is NOT just a cold for kids.
The long-term consequences are completely unknown and there's good reason for concern as explained in this thread.
The long-term consequences are completely unknown and there's good reason for concern as explained in this thread.
https://twitter.com/IanRicksecker/status/1478611653063180290?s=20
Part of what is important to note is that mitigation measures and vaccines work MUCH better when the virus isn't everywhere.
That's why a short break on in-person schooling NOW can prevent a lot of infections - the benefit is exponential!
That's why a short break on in-person schooling NOW can prevent a lot of infections - the benefit is exponential!
The currently astronomical infection rates mean that a two-week delay to in-person schooling NOW will have a *uniquely strong* effect:
1. Fewer ppl infectious when school returns ➡️ less virus in air
2. Less virus in air ➡️ better protection by vax & mitigation measures.
1. Fewer ppl infectious when school returns ➡️ less virus in air
2. Less virus in air ➡️ better protection by vax & mitigation measures.
A short school closure is a limited interruption.
Infections, on the other hand, can lead to prolonged and unpredictable teacher & staff absences, teacher & staff developing Long Covid/disability potentially resulting in months of disruption.
cnn.com/2021/08/08/us/…
Infections, on the other hand, can lead to prolonged and unpredictable teacher & staff absences, teacher & staff developing Long Covid/disability potentially resulting in months of disruption.
cnn.com/2021/08/08/us/…
So I leave you with this shockingly reasonable thought expressed on twitter dot com by apparent 🦄 @jonlevyBU.
https://twitter.com/jonlevyBU/status/1478706107539464192?s=20
And this bit of spot-on snark.
https://twitter.com/juliannalog/status/1479227716884959237?s=20
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