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7 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
JCVI recommend no second booster dose for the most vulnerable yet, although the attached quotes that after 10 weeks protection against mild symptomatic infection is reduced to around 30% in those age groups.

1/
 gov.uk/government/new…
For protection against hospitalisation, after 10 weeks it has fallen from 94% to 89% on the central scenario. Put another way, the efficacy gap has nearly doubled, from 6% to 11%.

The earliest boosted (and most vulnerable) are now well past 10 weeks.

2/
You can see here how protection against symptomatic infection falls off rapidly against Omicron after the booster. A similar picture is seen where AZ was used for the primary course.

3/
Given the oldest are well past 10 weeks, we've seen a doubling in the efficacy gap, and the time taken to reach the most vulnerable in any fourth dose programme, it feels slightly surprising that the JCVI is suggesting there is no immediate need for a second booster.

4/4

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts Profile picture
7 Jan
ONS has now provided the usual data to follow up its early release of the headline data on Wednesday.

Of particular interest is the regional position, most notably the NW, which looks to have overtaken London during the last few days of the year.

1/
Note that whilst the figures below show the NW still lower, these are based on the average for the week. Looking at the daily estimates through to the 31st, the NW is modelled to be 10.6% by the 31st, against London's 7.8%.

2/
Younger adults appear to be driving the increase, but equally of concern is the increase in the oldest age groups, most likely to put pressure on the health system.
The over 70 group has risen from 0.61% to 2.88% using the daily estimates in just 14 days.

3/
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
7 Jan
Signs of a reversal in trend in recent days as to the proportion of beds occupied where COVID is the primary diagnosis.

As cases/admissions appear to be levelling off in London, this is consistent with my recent thoughts, here.

1/
We only have data for acute hospitals, but from these we can see that those being treated primarily for COVID have continued to increase in the last week, regardless of any incidental admissions, up 47%.

2/
In London there's been an increase too, despite signs of levelling in admissions, although the last few days appear a bit odd (data issues maybe?).

NE/Yorks is up 87% and NW 72% on the week.

3/
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
5 Jan
ONS has released its infection survey results early this week, and they show a big, y-axis changing, jump for the week ending 31st Dec.
E ⏫from 3.7% to 6.0%
W⏫from 2.5% to 5.2%
NI⏫from 2.6% to 4.0%
S⏫from 2.6% to 4.5%

In E, 3.3m are estimated to have been infected.

1/
In London the modelling estimates that prevalence peaked on Xmas Day and is now falling back, albeit more slowly than it rose. That's good news, but...

...we also need to look at the age profile of London though.

2/
Here we see a slightly less optimistic picture, with infections at older ages continuing to rise towards the year end, although even the oldest ages appear to peak by the 31st, so hopefully it's downhill across all ages in the new year.

3/
Read 8 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
5 Jan
Latest COVID CH deaths (to 31st Dec) show a marked increase in comparison to previous weeks, undoing much of the reductions we saw in the previous two months.

As usual, we don't have vax status, nor whether COVID was the primary cause of death.

1/
In contrast, Over 70 deaths (to 24th Dec - a week earlier) show a steeper fall after three more gradual steps downwards. (Overall registrations are up, so there doesn't appear to be a holiday effect involved in the fall.)

2/
You can see here how the proportion of Over 70 deaths fell in the Spring as the initial vax effect benefited older ages first, then reverted to some degree as other age groups benefited too, and more recently has fallen again with the booster effect kicking in first.

3/
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
4 Jan
The first neat "summary on a page" of latest hospital data from @COVID19ACtuary this year shows hopeful signs in London, but still rapid growth elsewhere.

Next, weekly growth figures for admissions/beds/ mech ventilator beds.

1/
You can see clearly here how London is now the slowest region for growth over the last week, and indeed, the latest two admissions days have been lower than a week ago.
The green bars remain relatively low too across all regions, which is positive.

2/
A different view here, showing how London growth (on a rolling 7 day basis) took off earlier, but at the same time as others followed, it started to slow, and is likely to turn negative shortly.

Other regions are still growing rapidly, NE/Yorks being the fastest.

3/
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
3 Jan
Bank Holiday🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿booster/3rd primary update:
260k total reported over the last three days A comparison with the prior week isn't really meaningful, but in total we've boosted just 1.6m in the 10 days from 24th to 2nd.

Total is now 28.7m.

1/ Image
We may have offered all adults a booster by the year end, but around 8.7m (pale blue bars) haven't yet had one for some reason.

Note that some will be due to lack of interest, and some due to recent or current infections, rather than a lack of capacity in the system.

2/ Image
Nevertheless we've got excellent coverage over age 50, with 91% of those eligible boosted, or 89% of all those with 2 doses.

Put another way, only 1.8m of those eligible over 50 haven't yet been boosted - but we do need to reach out to these people, and get them jabbed too.

3/ Image
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