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7 Jan, 4 tweets, 3 min read
VIC R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.34 ± 0.09

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
VIC R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.34 ± 0.09

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
Cases in VIC if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sun: 28746 26792—30732
Mon: 32450 30130—34762
Tue: 36138 33480—38795
Wed: 39639 36639—42639
Thu: 42778 39446—46015
Fri: 45305 41808—48769
Sat: 47084 43463—50605

Doubling time is 4.1 days.

#COVID19Vic
For today, I've only included PCR positives (24,928 today) in the data used to estimate R_eff and make projections. I'll figure out how to recalibrate and include RATs soon.

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Chris Billington Profile picture
9 Jan
VIC R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.96 ± 0.10

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic ImageImage
VIC R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.96 ± 0.10

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic ImageImage
Cases in VIC if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Mon: 28281 25903—30742
Tue: 30939 28189—33797
Wed: 33482 30331—36691
Thu: 35707 32263—39301
Fri: 37606 33864—41473
Sat: 39006 35068—43041
Sun: 39862 35846—43962

Doubling time is 5.2 days.

#COVID19Vic
Read 4 tweets
Chris Billington Profile picture
8 Jan
NSW R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.41 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
NSW R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.41 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.85 ± 0.09
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 2.32 ± 0.16

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Chris Billington Profile picture
8 Jan
TAS R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.74 ± 0.42

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_TAS.html
TAS R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.74 ± 0.42

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_TAS.html
Cases in TAS if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sun: 1521 1136—1942
Mon: 1787 1319—2300
Tue: 2082 1523—2702
Wed: 2404 1737—3146
Thu: 2746 1967—3616
Fri: 3096 2196—4081
Sat: 3432 2426—4534

Doubling time is 3.4 days.
Read 4 tweets
Chris Billington Profile picture
7 Jan
With the projected peak of the NSW outbreak approaching, it's worth showing how sensitive my projection is to one of its main assumptions: the fraction of infections that are being captured by testing. 1/6
Current projection is based on the assumption that 20% of infections are being detected. That implies there are a lot of infections contributing to immunity that have not been detected via testing. 2/6
If the detection rate is higher, say, 30%, then there are not as many undetected infections out there, and therefore less immunity. High immunity is required for infections to peak, so that implies the peak is a little further away (and higher, in terms of detected cases) 3/6
Read 7 tweets
Chris Billington Profile picture
7 Jan
NSW R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.69 ± 0.07

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
NSW R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.69 ± 0.07

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.85 ± 0.09
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 2.32 ± 0.16

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Read 6 tweets
Chris Billington Profile picture
6 Jan
NSW R_eff as of January 7th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.76 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
NSW R_eff as of January 7th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.76 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.80 ± 0.09
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 2.02 ± 0.13

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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