The NSW gov released modelling this week which it says shows that the health system will easily be able to cope with the Omicron Tsunami - I’ve broken down some of the numbers for those so inclined…2/
Firstly - in terms of hospitalisation, Domicron claims that there is capacity for an additional 4500 Covid patients in hospital….3/
And that hospital demand will peak at 4700 Covid patients. Here’s a graph showing how much of the claimed capacity was being used by Covid patients on 6 Jan - and what Domicron says the peak in hospital demand will be (which he says will occur in just over two weeks)…..4/
Secondly - in terms of ICU beds, Domicron claims there is capacity for twice as many patients in ICU beds (both Covid and non-Covid)….5/
And that ICU numbers will likely peak at 273 Covid patients in ICU in just over two weeks. Here’s a graph showing how much of the claimed ICU capacity was being used by Covid patients on 6 Jan - and what Domicron says the peak in terms of ICU bed numbers will be….6/
So how accurate is the NSW model? Two obvious areas of concern;

1) The model assumes hospital numbers will peak in a couple of weeks. Given new cases have yet to peak - and there’s a lag between new cases and hospitalisation, it’s difficult to see how that can happen….7/
2) The model talks about bed capacity - and doesn’t comment on the NSW Health system’s ability to staff those beds. There’s growing anecdotal evidence that there is limited or no capacity to increase staffing - which makes physical beds useless. See the hashtag #AusHCW….8/
Regardless of whether these models are accurate or not - we now have details of what Domicron and co claim the NSW health systems’ capacity is - and we can track this against the reported numbers.

So we will wait and see :)
And the final word on the accuracy of Domicron’s projections goes to @jimmyrees’s latest Meanwhile in Australia (screenshot below) - see the full video at:

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More from @ComissionerKate

7 Jan
SATIRICAL TRANSCRIPT OF NSW COVID MEETING THIS AM
DOM: We need to look like we’re doing something!
Dr C: Or we could actually do something…
DOM: Of course. What could we do that won’t cost anything, won’t impact many people and won’t slow down our plans for herd immunity?…..2/
Dr C: We could shut down hospitality/entertainment venues. They’re a major source of transmission.
DOM: [shaking head and hands] Too expensive and will slow transmission too much. What’s the absolute bare minimum we could do?
Dr C: Stop singing and dancing at all events?…..3/
DOM: We can’t do that. I’m going to a wedding next week. And then there’s church. And my kids are going to a concert on the weekend. What if we just stopped it in cafes and restaurants? [Checks diary…] Yeah. That won’t impact me. And it costs nothing!…..4/
Read 4 tweets
6 Jan
A few days ago - @BradHazzard told us that “the overwhelming majority of people in ICU are unvaccinated”.

But today NSW Health released its risk dashboard showing 49% of people in ICU are in fact fully vaccinated - confirming Hazzard flat out lied to us….2/ Image
You have to ask why. My guess is that it supports the LNP’s narrative of “Don’t worry about Omicron, only the unvaxed are impacted— and it’s their fault after all.”

Now - to be fair - as a percentage of population, there are way more unvaxed in ICU than vaxed…..BUT….3/
But this is just all part of the LNP’s ongoing smokescreen to prevent people from questioning them on their “do nothing” response to the pandemic.

Hopefully the media will catch on soon and start reporting on this.

#VoteThemAllOut2022
#ScottyDoesNothing
Read 4 tweets
28 Aug 21
If there’s one thing everyone agrees on - it’s that having an effective Test, Trace & Isolate (TTI) function is critical to controlling Covid - even with 80% plus vax levels. And yet there are some worrying signs that NSW’s TTI function is crumbling under the pressure….2/
…Starting with Test: in the past NSW has encouraged people to come out and get tested “with the mildest of symptoms”. This week Chant changed the message to more of an “only if you need to” one stating the system is under pressure…..3/
….In relation to Tracing: there are growing signs that this is falling over. This week Gladys has announced she’s no longer going to report on number of cases infectious in the community. Meanwhile, cases under investigation are skyrocketing….4/
Read 10 tweets
30 Jun 21
The discussion around the AZ vaccine has reached peak farce! I’m at a loss as to how so many normally rational journos seem to have become mindless drug pushers! This tweet is a study in false equivalences and misquoting facts to manipulate the truth.
If you read the study that is misquoted by @sabralane - you will see that the fatality rates she quotes are not for the casual taking of an aspirin for a headache - but come from a study of 50 year old males taking a daily aspirin to prevent heart issues. Shameful journalism.
The reality is that the decision a healthy under 40 faces as to whether to get the AZ vaccine now OR wait until October to get Pfizer is not a clear cut one. Generic risk equations are not definitive - they are decision aids not decision makers…..
Read 6 tweets

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