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Alex Luck Profile picture
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8 Jan, 3 tweets, 1 min read
New media piece suggests Germany goes back to the future on its Tornado replacement. "Several assignments have been approved, including to clarify again whether F-35 may offer a suitable alternative, and whether Eurofighter may assume EW-role.". #Luftwaffe
zeit.de/politik/deutsc…
Reminder that in their initial position paper after winning election the current government coalition promised a decision on Tornado "early on" during the current parliamentary period. So presumably we will get more answers as to above in a timely fashion.
Reminder No 2: F-35 was previously excluded by Merkel-government, supposedly with motivation to please France on FCAS, but also because SPD heavily opposed buy of high profile weapon system from Trump-admin. Former Luftwaffe chief who favored F-35 got sacked over public comments.

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More from @AlexLuck9

Alex Luck Profile picture
6 Jan
Article 5 was not invoked by the US as a consequence of 9/11, it was NATO themselves who deemed the attack as qualifying to activate a casus foederis, and none of the actions taken as consequence by NATO were related to the attack in Afghanistan (the first having been ISAF 2003).
That Washington called for Art V is one of the greatest persistent misunderstandings of what actually happened back in 2001. The entire point of invoking Art V was to "show solidarity" with the US, by the Alliance. Cynics might suggest it was an effort to show relevance. Image
The eight measures that were decided in October 2001 were designed to deter further attacks on the US in general, not focusing on Afghanistan. Enduring Freedom was in principle a US-British led operation & other NATO partners (esp GER) were quite keen on distinctions to NATO-ops. Image
Read 4 tweets
Alex Luck Profile picture
23 Jun 21
The Russian speaker from corvette 363 Pavel Derzhavin in this radio traffic is referring to coastal warning 235, which relates to a missile and gunnery exercise as outlined below.

Source:
hydro.gov.ua/?page_id=144 Image
So unless I am mistaken, whatever the escalation of warnings was (fair bit of misunderstanding/miscommunication going on in traffic), original motivation seems to indeed have been matter of an ongoing exercise, not so much territorial transgressions, perceived or actual. 🤷‍♂️
To clarify the time code used above, the exercise concludes June 30 at 2100 hours, and the warning ceases to be in effect from 2200 hours. Not on June 21st, as one might read it.
Read 5 tweets
Alex Luck Profile picture
23 Jun 21
First confirmation that the German defence committee has approved the procurement of (among other things) #Bundeswehr Type 212CD #submarines w Norway, five P-8A Poseidon MPA from US via FMS, two new oilers and three SIGINT hulls to replace Type 704 and Type 423 respectively.
H/t @SeapowerSeries!
Worth noting here that these projects need to pass both the defence and the budget committees. So technically speaking individual efforts could still get canned. That being said it would be a relatively remarkable statement of disarray for the present government if it happens.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Luck Profile picture
23 Jun 21
Remarkable report (TBC I suppose) by RIA claiming Russian guard ship fired warning shots and a Su-24 dropped four OFAB-250 HE bombs to warn away British destroyer claimed to have intruded 3 km into "Russian territory" near Cape Fiolet, Crimea.

ria.ru/20210623/korab…
Some more info and good framing here, as usual from Rob.
Now statement from UK officials:
Read 5 tweets
Alex Luck Profile picture
29 Nov 20
Right, so since I got a bottle of Australian white going through my system, its just as well I capitalise on that & do a drunk movie review. Its "The Chronicles Of Riddick", a film I have a love-hate-relationship with. Excellent visuals & one liners, but atrocious plot & casting.
Mute this thread if movie reviews, drunk or sober, bother you. Thanks, with a cherry on top.
This btw is the Directors cut of the film. So there's like 15 minutes of extra footage explaining to us all the bad choices David Twohy made in producing a sequel to PITCH BLACK, that clearly looked at Lord Of The Rings and then just ran through three lines of cocaine.
Read 99 tweets
Alex Luck Profile picture
27 Nov 20
Defence budget 2021 for #Bundeswehr has passed budget committee, rising by 120 million Euros to 46.93 billion Euros. While in itself not terrible, its also not great news about GER genuinely spending on needed materiel recapitalization. Source on news:

augengeradeaus.net/2020/11/vertei…
As per AKK's recent speech outlining her spending priorities, it was made clear that without substantial increases balance of existing funding will serve to fill deficits in basic equipment & supply issues (ammo, personal gear etc).
So for now big materiel spending will be limited to T1 Eurofighter replacement and the Eurodrone, for which, interestingly, there is still no new contract required to move program along.
Read 4 tweets

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