Thread by @Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.41 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

NSW R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.41 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.85 ± 0.09
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 2.32 ± 0.16

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 1.99 ± 0.08
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 1.95 ± 0.11

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

The Hunter region: R_eff = 2.21 ± 0.26

Illawarra region: R_eff = 2.80 ± 0.27

Western New South Wales: R_eff = 3.66 ± 0.56

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Cases in NSW if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Mon: 39655 35691—43704
Tue: 40567 36265—45004
Wed: 41081 36474—45801
Thu: 41154 36352—46103
Fri: 40786 35880—45834
Sat: 39981 35052—45023
Sun: 38800 33922—43736

Doubling time is 10.1 days.