Thread by @jonworth

Musing…

Could triggering Article 16 be the lever to trigger a Tory leadership election?

Bear with me…

It’s based on Truss’s Telegraph piece today
telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/0…

Truss can sort of talk to Sefcovic in the coming few weeks, make little or no progress, and confront Johnson with an ultimatum in February: the EU won’t budge (probably on ECJ issue) so we should trigger Article 16.

(Set aside whether this threat to trigger will work in practical terms towards the EU - that’s not what it’s for. It’s a kind of back me or sack me play by Truss. It’s not intended to actually *happen*)

What does Johnson do?

Says no (likely). Truss resigns. Takes a couple of allies in cabinet with her. Gets ERGers to send in letters to 1922.

Says yes (unlikely). Truss got what hardliners wanted. Is feted for this. Leadership election delayed a while as Johnson handles fallout.

Johnson cannot really do nothing - as if he prevaricates the threat Truss resigns persists still.

The crux is this: Truss can position herself as the leader of the hard Brexit line, taking this 👑 from Johnson.

But if the threat to trigger… then actually led to a leadership election and Article 16 not actually being triggered, it buys time for everyone.

Whoever wins the leadership election returns to the negotiating table. The EU gives some minor concessions. The new Tory leader frames this as a win against the dastardly EU.

Article 16 crisis averted. Johnson replaced. Job done.

Too much to hope for?

/ends