Musing…

Could triggering Article 16 be the lever to trigger a Tory leadership election?

Bear with me…

It’s based on Truss’s Telegraph piece today
telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/0…
Truss can sort of talk to Sefcovic in the coming few weeks, make little or no progress, and confront Johnson with an ultimatum in February: the EU won’t budge (probably on ECJ issue) so we should trigger Article 16.
(Set aside whether this threat to trigger will work in practical terms towards the EU - that’s not what it’s for. It’s a kind of back me or sack me play by Truss. It’s not intended to actually *happen*)
What does Johnson do?

Says no (likely). Truss resigns. Takes a couple of allies in cabinet with her. Gets ERGers to send in letters to 1922.

Says yes (unlikely). Truss got what hardliners wanted. Is feted for this. Leadership election delayed a while as Johnson handles fallout.
Johnson cannot really do nothing - as if he prevaricates the threat Truss resigns persists still.

The crux is this: Truss can position herself as the leader of the hard Brexit line, taking this 👑 from Johnson.
But if the threat to trigger… then actually led to a leadership election and Article 16 not actually being triggered, it buys time for everyone.
Whoever wins the leadership election returns to the negotiating table. The EU gives some minor concessions. The new Tory leader frames this as a win against the dastardly EU.

Article 16 crisis averted. Johnson replaced. Job done.
Too much to hope for?

/ends

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More from @jonworth

8 Jan
OK, now v2 of my visit every border in the EU (and EFTA added too!) you can cross by train is now ready!

And the route is split into roughly 3 equal parts, start/end in Berlin each time
The whole route is on Google Maps here:
google.com/maps/d/viewer?…

And Spredsheet detail here (you might have to click V2):
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
This totals

138 trains
18 bike legs
1 buses
1 taxi
1 ferry

52 border crossings
Read 6 tweets
8 Jan
A quick thread about Deutsche Bahn scrapping InterCity ⚡️ locomotives - as this issue has started to get some public debate

It concerns DB sending class 101 and class 120 locomotives for scrap

Pic 1 from @railcolor, pics 2 and 3 from @lokfuehrer_tim
The starting point is not the locomotives themselves

It is Deutsche Bahn's strategy as to how its long distance passenger trains should be run

Basically they no longer want this

Source: flickr.com/photos/5589904…
And instead want a more standardised product - these

Sources:
flickr.com/photos/1354874…
flickr.com/photos/1445074…
flickr.com/photos/1445074…
Read 12 tweets
7 Jan
The border area Slovenia-Croatia-Hungary is fascinating for railway connections - many that don't work properly... due to neglect, politics, Schengen, history, lack of investment...
From the north in Hungary, Rédics used to connect to Lendava, but doesn't now. And Lendava can only be reached from the rest of the Slovenian rail network via Čakovec in Croatia

Čakovec to Nagykanizsa seems to have no passenger trains currently
Meanwhile the fastest Ljubljana-Budapest would probably route through Čakovec too, but instead goes via Hodoš, so as to avoid running through Croatia (and probably because the infra is ropey on the Croatian section)
Read 5 tweets
4 Jan
Yesterday I completed my first draft of a route that crosses all border pairs in the EU that can be traversed by train.

But some of the border crossings have been nagging at me, and I need your help...

The original rationale, and the maps and tables are in this thread 👇
🇱🇹🇱🇻
Am I right there is no train north of Šiauliai, and no train south of Jelgava?

80km between the two... So I assume I am going to need a bus there? Is there a way via Vilnius and Daugavpils instead?

@moritzkraehe @briedisunrepshe Image
🇩🇰🇩🇪
While Fehmarn is being rebuilt, the route from Kbh westwards via Odense to Kolding is obvious. But what then?

Standard route south via Padborg? Or via Tønder-Niebüll?

@NiChNi @jacobchr @SorenHave
Read 14 tweets
4 Jan
Based on the discussion below this tweet and a question from @mattpoole2011, I wondered:
What would be the fastest Paris-Barcelona TGV?
Using current infrastructure
And with a stop pattern that works

The answer: 5 hours 56 mins Image
How do you do it?

Eliminate stops in Valence TGV, Sète, Agde, Béziers and Narbonne

Stop in Nîmes Pont du Gard (not Nîmes) and Montpellier Sud de France (not St Roch)

Shave 5 mins off the Perpignan stop
"But what about those stops?" I hear you cry - well connect those with either other TGVs, or with Intercités or TERs - to allow a connection in Perpignan for Barcelona - that's how Deutsche Bahn would do it!
Read 5 tweets
3 Jan
A couple of weeks ago I wondered: what happened to Michael Cramer's work on missing railway links in Europe?

I blogged about the meagre progress 👇
jonworth.eu/revisiting-mic…

But what about making my *own* Missing Links project? And better still *visit the borders*? Image
The fruits of my work are here as a Google Map 👇
google.com/maps/d/viewer?…
Each marker signals a change of train. Each colour indicates a different day. Berlin is start/end.

And the route as a Google Sheet, inc. all 46 border crossings 👇
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
The route comes in at:
115 x 🚅
16562km by 🚅

10 x 🚲
192km by 🚲

2 x 🚌
1 x ⛴
2 x 🚕
156km by motor vehicle

And 30 days trip time!
Read 10 tweets

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