Thread by @GeringTuvia

"2022 is not likely to be a good year for Sino-US relations... We live in a major country that is on the rise; its path is certain. But the rest of the world is far more unpredictable" - Jin Canrong of Renmin University sees a shadow, predicts another year of winter.
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Professor Jin Canrong of Renmin University, a US expert and influential pundit on foreign affairs, recently delivered the keynote address at a major event focused on the future of Sino-US relations in 2022.
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Jin says he is not a fan of prognostications; despite his belief in China's clear development path and political stability, he considers the external environment extremely volatile. And yet, he identifies the following trends as being critical to grasping Sino-US relations:
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To begin, COVID will remain uncontainable, and its ability to wreak havoc on the unvaccinated developing world will continue to have an impact on the global economy and public health; the global economy will also continue to be buffeted by uncontrollable inflationary pressures
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Next, mid-term is coming, the US, and there's a good chance the Democratic Party will lose its razor-thin majority in Congress, effectively making Biden a lame duck.
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With no control over the legislature and a reduced ability to coordinate domestic policy, Biden will concentrate his efforts on foreign policy, which will be bad news for Sino-US relations.
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Taiwan is also facing an election year, and Jin predicts that pro-independence proponents will exacerbate the already tense situation vis-à-vis the US.
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Then, as the major powers' relationship deteriorates, the middle powers become more active; countries like Turkey, Iran, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, and Vietnam will become increasingly important
[A perfect opportunity to push my article on the topic 9dashline.com/article/the-in…]
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In addition to worsening Sino-US ties in 2022, Jin believes that US-Russia relations will turn from bad to worse. Jin believes that Russia's relationship with the West has been adversely affected over Ukraine [and now we can add the unrest in KZ into the mix].
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Finally, Jin says that while the Trump administration wanted to unite with Russia to contain China, the current administration is bringing China and Russia together to fight on the same team, a move he calls "unexpected/unusual (反常)".
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Link bilibili.com/video/BV18r4y1…