I wrote about the mystery of the moment: Is Omicron less severe?
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
I’ve seen the real-world data. I’ve seen the lab conclusions. It’s not a clean picture. But I have a tentative answer.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
I’ve seen the real-world data. I’ve seen the lab conclusions. It’s not a clean picture. But I have a tentative answer.
The severity conundrum contains an easy & hard question.
The easier Q: Is O milder than previous strains for ppl w/ immunity from infections/vaxx? The answer at this point leans strongly toward yes.
The hard Q: Is O *intrinsically* milder? The evidence here is much more uneven.
The easier Q: Is O milder than previous strains for ppl w/ immunity from infections/vaxx? The answer at this point leans strongly toward yes.
The hard Q: Is O *intrinsically* milder? The evidence here is much more uneven.
What I wanted to do with this piece is provide a synthesis of the real-world and lab conclusions, with all the proper caveats, on Omicron and severity
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
This thread provides a brief summary, but I'd encourage you to read the piece to get the full flavor.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
This thread provides a brief summary, but I'd encourage you to read the piece to get the full flavor.
SOUTH AFRICA: Optimistic, with caveats
For now, almost all of the raw data, analysis, research, and anecdotes are pointing in the same direction: This wave is different.
Big issue is SA immunity profile isn't representative of the US
For now, almost all of the raw data, analysis, research, and anecdotes are pointing in the same direction: This wave is different.
Big issue is SA immunity profile isn't representative of the US
THE UK: Mixed, but it's early
Cases are vertical in London. Hospitalization rising there and moderately through England.
The Imperial College London ("no evidence") study was broadly misreported.
New evidence pointing to lower hospitalization risk.
Cases are vertical in London. Hospitalization rising there and moderately through England.
The Imperial College London ("no evidence") study was broadly misreported.
New evidence pointing to lower hospitalization risk.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1473556411946717184?s=20
Two lab studies—from Hong Kong and UK—independently concluded that Omicron multiples with great speed in the upper lung but less effectively than Delta in lower lung.
This could—could!—be consistent with hyper-transmissible virus and less severe disease.
This could—could!—be consistent with hyper-transmissible virus and less severe disease.
https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1471088936999137281
Three conclusions
1) Before any evidence, my prior for Omicron was similar severity. My update is that Omicron severity is likely strongly mitigated by immunity and (with less confidence) may be slightly less severe for individuals without immunity.
1) Before any evidence, my prior for Omicron was similar severity. My update is that Omicron severity is likely strongly mitigated by immunity and (with less confidence) may be slightly less severe for individuals without immunity.
2) The arithmetic of pandemics is more complicated than the sum of individual experiences!
Viruses are multiplication problems. 60% milder x 300 % more transmissible = a lot of disease.
You can have smaller avg *individual* severity but also more rising total disease.
Viruses are multiplication problems. 60% milder x 300 % more transmissible = a lot of disease.
You can have smaller avg *individual* severity but also more rising total disease.
3) As Omicron takes off in a country with EXTREMELY VARIABLE RISK, it makes NO SENSE to think of severity as one thing, or one number.
That's why I'm thinking of the U.S. as 4 interlocked rings of risk.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
That's why I'm thinking of the U.S. as 4 interlocked rings of risk.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
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