Ryabkov holds a press briefing in Geneva right now.

‘The American side approached the negotiations very seriously'
Ryabkov insists Russia needs a legally binding agreement on NATO expansion block
Ryabkov says unsurprisingly the American side came with their own grievances
Ryabkov: ‘We don’t have an intention to attack Ukraine… There is no reason to believe in any escalatory scenario'
Ryabkov is being very positive in the press conference but ‘key issues are still pending’.

As long as they keep talking, it is a good outcome
Ryabkov: ‘It should be NATO making the first step not Russia'
Ryabkov: ‘For the first time in diplomatic practice, the draft treaties were drafted in advance and publicized… We were blamed for applying pressure.. You can call it whatever you want. We are doing exactly what we think is right. Diplomacy is all about finding a compromise'
Ryabkov: ‘We would like to continue the dialogue… There is a basis to reach an agreement’

VERY positive talk…
Ryabkov: ‘Other than sanctions, they do not have any tools in their arsenal'
Ryabkov: ‘It came as no surprise to us that on NATO expansion and legal guarantees - the Americans rejected our position'
Ryabkov: ‘Their rejection on NATO expansion is not good because they do not understand the seriousness of the matter… But I don’t think the situation is hopeless'
Ryabkov: ‘The range of questions are very complicated and intertwined… But on general direction we are moving along. We want to see what happens on Jan 12 and Jan 14 with NATO and OSCE'
Ryabkov refers to START treaty being negotiated in record time in 8 months and emphasizes the need to work in that spirit now.

8 months is very optimistic/unrealistic timeline but at least they are backing off from talk of ‘immediate’ resolution
Of course, the troops on Ukraine’s border won’t stay there for 8 months. So even that timeline is a positive sign
Ryabkov: In the next few days it will be clear if there will be further rounds of talks on stability talks
Ryabkov: ‘Ukraine and Georgia will NEVER EVER become members of NATO. We are fed up with loose talk, half promises, misinterpretrations of what happened in past negotiations. We need iron-clad, water-proof, legally binding guarantees. Not assurances, guarantees'
Ryabkov on Iranian JCPOA talks. ‘The talks are ongoing. We think the chance of getting an agreement are increasing. All parties are demonstrating their willingness to find a solution'
Ryabkov: ‘I would like to underscore that the question of non expansion of NATO in legally binding form is top priority for us… We didn’t hear anything about our top priority. That’s the problem we are facing now'
Ryabkov is separating the Strategic Stability Dialogue talks (will continue) from the Security Guarantees talks (remains to be seen if will continue).

US position is that there is only Strategic Stability Dialogue and today was an extraordinary session of it
Ryabkov: ‘We know that legally binding guarantees are a complex technical matter that may require ratification and will take time. But that’s a secondary matter. We do not even see political will to move on this issue'
Ryabkov: ‘'We are concerned about provocations on the part of Ukraine-on their own or in cooperation with Western countries, like US and UK, which may create a situation where probability for some clashes will grow. We need to avoid it. Diplomacy should have an upper hand’

WRAP

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More from @DAlperovitch

10 Jan
My take on today’s US-RU talks in Geneva 🧵
Ryabkov, the head of RU delegation, went out of his way to deescalate the rhetoric and say that the US delegation came to have a serious discussion. That’s clearly a positive given the quite radical statements coming out of Putin, Lavrov and even Ryabkov prior to the talks
Ryabkov insisted that there is no intention to attack Ukraine. However, I would not read too much into it. Even if he is telling the truth, it’s unlikely that he would be told of such plans (MID is rarely kept in the loop)

Read 8 tweets
4 Jan
My original thread on the high likelihood of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the next 2 months has sparked a lot of great conversations and debate, so I now want to follow it up with another that discusses a potential solution to resolve this crisis peacefully🧵
First, let’s quickly recap why Russia’s invasion is very likely
TL;DR Putin believes that the time to achieve his strategic objectives of keeping Ukraine out of Western military orbit is NOW because it is
a) doable (militarily, politically and economically) and
b) if he doesn’t do it now, it might be too late in the future
Read 41 tweets
21 Dec 21
In the last few weeks, I have become increasingly convinced that Kremlin has unfortunately made a decision to invade Ukraine later this winter. While it is still possible for Putin to deescalate, I believe the likelihood is now quite low. Allow me to explain why 🧵
There are numerous signals that Russia has sent recently that make me believe invasion is almost certain, as well as a substantial number of reasons for why this is the preferred route for Putin
Signal:
The obvious one. The military build-up on Ukraine’s borders (in the north, east and south in Crimea). This mobilization is qualitatively and quantitatively different from the past
Read 39 tweets
1 Apr 21
Unfortunately, National Cyber Director is an unhelpful distraction. The idea that nominating a single person for an office that Congress hasn’t even bothered to fund yet will make a difference in confronting our nation’s numerous cyber challenges is ridiculous 1/4
We have a person in the White House who has been incredibly empowered to solve these problems. Her name is Anne Neuberger and she has a newly created and extraordinarily powerful role on the NSC as Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber 2/4
I wish someone would tell me at least one thing that people think NCD would do that Anne can’t do in her (arguably much more powerful) role? 3/4
Read 5 tweets
19 Dec 20
It strikes me that how we respond to the #SolarWindsHack strategically, in public messaging, and in some ways, even tactically, would be vastly difference had we believed it was GRU, and not SVR intelligence service who was behind it 1/
The reason being that SVR, unlike GRU, has no post Soviet history of conductive destructive attacks or attacks that violate established norms (in cyber or physical worlds).

Another reason probably being that SVR is a civilian intelligence agency, not a military one 2/
This yet again highlights the critical importance of attribution for both strategic and tactical decision making in government and private sector alike.

And the importance of specificity of attribution on multiple levels. Nation State vs Criminal, RU vs CN, GRU vs SVR 3/
Read 5 tweets
15 Dec 20
#SolarWinds hack update thread.

One word of caution, particularly for reporters publicizing hack victims. Many of the Orion platform customers have downloaded the backdoored update and it would have likely eventually contacted the C2 servers 1/4
Those backdoors and C2 connections are now being discovered by IR teams that are searching logs and systems for indicators published by @FireEye. However, this discovery does not necessarily mean the attackers did anything damaging to that organization 2/4
@FireEye In fact, most appear to have done a DNS lookup to the C2 server and received back a ‘kill switch’ response that indicates the adversaries had no interest in that victim 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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