@TSTRMPro Jan 10, 2022 | 12:50 PM EST DOUG KASS
Some of My Stronger Convictions
"The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity."
- William Butler Yates
I recently wrote an honest column about my lack of conviction and my general confusion in
Some of My Stronger Convictions
"The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity."
- William Butler Yates
I recently wrote an honest column about my lack of conviction and my general confusion in
viewing a market at all-time highs, with so many adverse outcomes possible/likely.
However, I do have several strong conviction views:
* Markets rise and fall, but, on a risk/reward basis, the S&P Index is unattractive given the current level of valuations, elevated by
However, I do have several strong conviction views:
* Markets rise and fall, but, on a risk/reward basis, the S&P Index is unattractive given the current level of valuations, elevated by
historical standards, and the many possible economic and profit headwinds.
* The Bull Market is old and many/most stocks (save "The Nifty Five") are technically broken.
* The odds now favor that Mr. Market is making a broad, distributive and important top.
* Significant supply
* The Bull Market is old and many/most stocks (save "The Nifty Five") are technically broken.
* The odds now favor that Mr. Market is making a broad, distributive and important top.
* Significant supply
chain dislocations will be with us for a far longer time than the consensus expects.
* Importantly, those dislocations and logistical issues will exacerbate an already troublesome inflation picture.
* Central bankers have no alternative but to pivot harder than anticipated over
* Importantly, those dislocations and logistical issues will exacerbate an already troublesome inflation picture.
* Central bankers have no alternative but to pivot harder than anticipated over
the next 1-2 years, just at a time in which global growth will be slowing.
* On average, over time, a 100 basis point rise in the Fed Funds rate results in a 10%-20% valuation reset lower.
* The engine of global economic growth - China - is foundering.
* Bonds are ludicrously
* On average, over time, a 100 basis point rise in the Fed Funds rate results in a 10%-20% valuation reset lower.
* The engine of global economic growth - China - is foundering.
* Bonds are ludicrously
overpriced relative to inflation and inflationary expectations.
* Stocks are likely vulnerable because too many are comparing them to an asset class, fixed income, which itself is grossly overvalued.
* A new regime of heightened volatility may lie ahead.
* If we have entered a
* Stocks are likely vulnerable because too many are comparing them to an asset class, fixed income, which itself is grossly overvalued.
* A new regime of heightened volatility may lie ahead.
* If we have entered a
Bear Market - we will take an elevator down, after having taken an escalator up - that process is scary and those market participants, who are not of the age to have seen a Bear Market, may have limited understanding of the pain.
* Our political system is broken.
* Our political system is broken.
Though many feel gridlock is good for equities, I view it differently - particularly with so many issues at hand: national debt/deficits, climate, wealth/income inequality, etc.
* There is more value in value than in growth.
* Like Hotel California, avoid illiquid and
* There is more value in value than in growth.
* Like Hotel California, avoid illiquid and
speculative gewgaws at all costs. Yes, there will be needles in the haystack, but very few to justify the exercise in a period of rising interest rates and slowing growth. @jimcramer @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @ferrotv @ScottWapnerCNBC @threadreaderapp unroll
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