@cnbcfastmoney @MelissaLeeCNBC @TSTRMPro
Oct 06, 2021 | 01:40 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Why I'm Not Buying General Motors
*When it seems everyone else is!
General Motors ($GM) has declared that its move into electric vehicles will serve to double revenues by 2030.
On the face of it that's a very powerful statement. Moreover, I appreciate the EV transformation and the relative inexpensive valuation - but unlike many who have embraced ownership of $GM I am not anxious to buy the stock.
Here is my explanation and, hopefully, "second level thinking", for why I am avoiding the shares - and that of Ford ($F) , with apologies to Gary "US Bonds":
* The transformation into EV vehicles is simply replacing a legacy business with a new one -
GM is still an automobile manufacturer.
* At the end of the day and despite the changing nature of the production output - combustion vs EV - the car business is still capital intensive, has a highly unionized workforce and produces an inferior return on invested capital.
* Unlike Tesla (TSLA) which does not have a legacy business, General Motors does.
* As such, General Motors is simply replacing the sale of a combustible engine car with a new EV vehicle.
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More from @DougKass

4 Oct
At the funeral on Sunday the Rabbi recalled Tobias Levkovich's uniqueness in an anecdote about his last appearance on CNBC (you can watch it here ) - which was the day before his car accident. In that CNBC interview Tobias appeared in his home office and
behind him was a shofar. A shofar is made out of a ram's horn and is used in Jewish religious festivities and services.
I was brought to tears because I spoke to Tobias right after that interview and I had noticed the shofar. In that phone call he told me, and the Rabbi passed
on his similar discussion with him, that the placement was intentional. The shofar's placement was a subliminal message - Tobias wanted it to inspire all the young Jewish professionals who had recently entered Wall Street. @tomkeene @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @jimcramer
Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
I received this email from Tobias Levkovich several months ago:

-----Original Message-----
From: Levkovich, Tobias <tobias.levkovich@citi.com>
To: Levkovich, Tobias <tobias.levkovich@citi.com>
Sent: Sun, Mar 21, 2021 12:05 pm
Subject: Passover

I wanted to take this opportunity
to wish you and your family a Happy and Healthy Passover! May the spirit of liberation from slavery be a reminder of G-d’s mercy and recognition of our ancestors’ suffering. Let Freedom reign amidst a world that needs recovery from the Covid pandemic as we begin to see some
vaccine lights at the end of the tunnel. This holiday provides us the great opportunity to appreciate our families and the good things we have versus the often less important stuff that we don’t.
Tobias Levkovich | Chief US Equity Strategist Managing Director
Read 4 tweets
29 Sep
Why I Am Short Netflix
* Netflix's first mover advantage is likely to be challenged in the years ahead
* The company's growth rate will likely moderate relative to expectations as the streaming market grows more crowded
The best days, from a rate of change viewpoint - in subscribers and in revenues, is probably behind Netflix ($NFLX) and I expect a rerating - lower - in the company's shares.
Netflix has had first mover advantage in the streaming business for quite a long time.
Though the company's market dominance will likely continue there are accumulating signposts that demand has been pulled forward and that its leadership in the marketplace will be now be challenged by numerous other players. That, through mergers and combinations, will have
Read 9 tweets
29 Sep
Sep 29, 2021 | 01:03 PM EDT DOUG KASS
My Stock of the Year for 2022 (By Far!) Is ViacomCBS $VIAC
* VIAC trades at only $40/share compared to a 'sum of the parts' value of $75/share
* Viacom's operating results in 2022-23 will likely exceed consensus expectations
* With a 12-month downside of only about -$3/share and upside of at least +$25/share, Viacom is a very compelling investment on a reward vs. risk basis
* I expect that there will be multiple suitors for Viacom -- including Comcast, Apple, Amazon and Google $CMCSA $AAPL $AMZN
I invest based on the notion of "margin of safety" and reward vs. risk. As such, Viacom (VIAC) easily qualifies as my Stock of the Year over the next 12 months and through 2022 based on these factors...
@cnbcfastmoney @SquawkCNBC @jimcramer @tomkeene @ferrotv @lizclaman
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
Sell Growth
This morning the yield on the ten year US note rose by another three basis points to 1.491%.
Meanwhile the price of crude oil is +$1.05/barrell and is closing in on $80.
And the prices of nearly everything has risen dramatically.
With rates rising and cost pressures persistent (and not likely transitory) it is time to sell/short the growth segment of the market - which typically behaves poorly under a higher inflation and interest rate backdrop.
I suspect that the most growth elements - large cap tech (FAANG plus M) will be under pressure and it is difficult for me to see (particularly after the magnitude of the rally from last Monday) the overall market (read: S and P Index) perform very well under these circumstances.
Read 4 tweets
24 Sep
@realmoney Sep 23, 2021 | 08:25 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Our World, and Welcome to It!
Uber ($UBER) and Lyft ($LYFT) have no cars.
General Motors ($GM) has no chips.
Airbnb ($ABNB) has no real estate.
Evergrande has no money.
Robinhood ($HOOD) has no shareholders equity.
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value.
Tesla ($TSLA) has no auto-based profits.
Zoom ($ZM) and Peloton ($PTON) have no physical plant.
Precious metals have no friends.
Ark Invest ($ARKK) may soon have less liquidity.
Congress and The Fed have no discipline.
"Talking heads" have no humility.
The Emperor has no clothes.
This is the new economy.
This is the new stock market.
Oh, and... investors have no brains. @jimcramer @tomkeene @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @SaraEisen @carlquintanilla @riskreversal @EpsilonTheory @convertbond
Read 4 tweets

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