Thread by @_log_scale_

#Bitcoiners — Reconcile any bearishness you have with the following:

A) Friday's poll: 80% of you think a $1 million BTC price (~$20 trillion market cap) is enough to trigger global FOMO into hyper- #bitcoin -ization.

THREAD ⤵️

https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinSpot/status/1479537192758169602

This thread is more clear, more conservative and less hyperbolic than last week's.

We know that it takes <$20 trillion flowing into Bitcoin to raise its market cap by $20 trillion.

That's because there's an inflexible supply, unwilling sellers (hodlers) and a small float. ⤵️

B) Some say the multiplier is 3x. @BankofAmerica says it's 107x (see tweets #9–10 in the this thread).

https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinSpot/status/1478051103530897410?s=20

Let's go with only 3x.

That means that $6.5 trillion flowing into Bitcoin would result in a $20 trillion market cap...

and hyperbitcoinization. ⤵️

So the 21-million dollar question is: How long will it take $6.5 trillion to flow into Bitcoin?

(BTW it would need to be only $180 billion with BofA's 107x multiplier.)⤵️

C) Ric Edelman @ricedelman, top advisor to financial advisors, says that in 2022 advisors who recommend digital assets will recommend a 3–5% allocation (see #18 at this link).

401kspecialistmag.com/ric-edelmans-2…

Let's go with 3%.

In #12 he says 1/3 of Americans will own Bitcoin. ⤵️

D) There is exponential growth among advisors recommending digital assets, according to annual surveys of their own professional association. See tweets #2–5 here:

https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinSpot/status/1478051095725297665?s=20

Let's go with 1/3 of advisors by end of year — in line with Edelman's 1/3 of Americans. ⤵️

If 1/3 of Americans and their advisors are allocating 3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, how does that translate to all of global wealth?

It's safe to say that the 1/3 allocating to Bitcoin are the most wealthy of Americans. Meaning it's a LOT more than 1/3 of the wealth. ⤵️

Let's say it's 3% of 3/4 of the wealth.

That should extend to global wealth as well: The global elite, the high-net worth and their financial advisors, control almost all global wealth. They're "getting it" and moving into Bitcoin. ⤵️

So... how much global wealth is there?

A few weeks ago, the galaxy brains at McKinsey calculated that there's $1,540 trillion in global wealth — and that after subtracting debt, global net worth is $510 trillion. ⤵️

mckinsey.com/industries/fin…

So, if in 2022 the standard allocation to Bitcoin is 3% of 3/4 of global wealth totalling $510 trillion, how much is that?

$11.5 trillion, which is... more than the $6.5 trillion needed to trigger hyperbitcoinization. ⤵️

Does the high end of your range of possible outcomes for Bitcoin this year include that possibility?

Are you prepared for it?

None of this depends on anything happening with on-chain metrics or fiat currencies or macroeconomics or geopolitics. ⤵️

This is simple supply and demand.

Governments would try to shut on-ramps to Bitcoin to slow the process and to prevent mass chaos.

Governments — all of them — would be forced to race to buy Bitcoin for their national treasuries, too. ⤵️

The US Govt would be forced to freeze Bitcoin at centralized custodians such as Coinbase or any exchange you use, as well as Grayscale and Microstrategy.

Governments would have to nationalize those honeypots to save their national treasuries. ⤵️

1 BTC might be $1 million when your exchange is nationalized, and the government might compensate you with a 10% premium or $1.1m/BTC.

But as soon as that episode happened, the buying power of 1 BTC in cold storage would soar to tens of millions of today's dollars. ⤵️

The greatest wealth transfer in human history — and you would miss out for any Bitcoin you did not have in cold storage.

Hardware wallet manufacturers would be sold out long before you could try to order one.

And so...

https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinSpot/status/1477373050546888705