Thread by @acrossthespread

#BTC Q4’21 - Current Price Action Story w/ videos

We’re at a pretty critical level right now- this is where Oct longs got long, saw rally to new ATHs & now back to breakeven/losses

So what happened from then → now?

A quick & NON COMPREHENSIVE overview @RealVision

1/Oct’21, CME futs backed ETFs launched, $BITO 1st out the gate & grabbed >$1bn AUM in 2 days setting ETF launch record

ETF launches preceded by opening new longs on CME futs for ETF share creation & front runs

See w/
@AshBennington @biancoresearch & I

2/“Artificial” futs driven initial $40k→ATH move via CFTC COT positioning:

“Others” (trading🐋s) 1st in ahead of ETF launch & sold their longs to “Asset Managers,” who went from single digit % → ⅓ of OI & currently very long into this downside & selling (but still very long)

3/ But $BITO rollout Day2 was already peak inflows

Why Day2 & not Day1?
Day2 is when options on $BITO listed, w/ meme-like activity (rushing into nearest expiry, furthest OTM calls → BITO inflows from short gamma dealers hedging)

See my explainer↓

4/ After Day2 peak fake Oct rally, ↓hill begins- BUT, 1 last boost in spot for top tick on Nov 7

What caused +15% upside headfake?

🇯🇵8698 Monex +40% 2 day limit up

Watch my Monex explainer video that became top tick ATHs (obv unaware at time) ↓

5/ CME futs drove mkt ↑ in Oct, peaked Nov, then open int ↓ -40% from Monex spike day to current, alongside BTC price (also -40% to current)

Why does this matter?

1) to explain both Oct rally & Nov flip → current decline

2) b/c less OI & active players = BITO influence ↑

6/ As of fri last settlement/close:

CME had 8700 Jan & 2k Feb BTC futs open int

BITO (which only holds 1st & 2nd month futs) held 3.8k Jan & 1.1k Feb in quantity

BITO owns just < ½ of Jan & just > ½ of Feb BTC open int on CME.

VERY bad for mkt function- especially upon roll

7/ Latest CME BTC futures roll (in BITO’s case, SELL to CLOSE Dec / BUY to OPEN Jan, or “long roll”)

Dec futs last trade date was 12/31/21, settlement 1/3/22

On 12/31 mkt close BITO was still long $300m notional of expiring Dec BTC- they didn’t roll to Jan like they should have

8/ Instead, it seems they executed a block of 1,265 futs off exchange (& yes it was obv & def them, other than same exact qty match, at that point nobody else still holds Dec futs)

9/Why didn’t they roll Dec→Jan? My guess is they’re either terrible at trading, or they cornered too much of market liquidity & will impact, or both

Can’t just block trade $300m (or 100% of entire remaining contracts) to dealer & think no mkt impact

&Jan mkts open -8% on4x ADV

10/ So that’s more or less what the big picture market behavior story was

Yes, infinite other variables & factors. No, not THE (& NEVER is) 1 & only driver (hence Monex above)

Another example: 🇹🇷lira & TRYJPY, & 🇯🇵retail traders.
See my vid ↓

11/ Or that BTC to many is a risk asset no diff from SPX, or GME calls or what have you. Doesn’t matter if you personally think it is/isn’t - matters what active market participants think & treat it as

See vid BTC corr. w/ 🌎equities, rates, crude, FX ↓

12/ And of course- although I may be talking about CME futures, 🇺🇸listed ETFs etc, #BTC is NOT AN AMERICAN / USD-only asset for price action

Anyone who took my New Years resolution suggestion seriously- good for you & your funds👍

Oh, 1 last thing. Weed. And BTC.
12 month calendar repeat of directionally parallel → opposite?

…no, & prob not good application here, but still want to flag BTC… on weeeed

See 1min video (on/not on weed) →

$TLRY #BTC $TSLA $msos

#monex & BTCJPY

Monex made #BTC’s ATH detour on its way down

See wtf a “Monex” is ↓

#monex & #BTC’s ATH

See video 👇

https://twitter.com/realvision/status/1480646431568449541