Thread by @t0ussaint

Palladium is up ~25% since mid-December #Stagflation

Iron Ore is up ~31% since beginning of December #Stagflation

Aluminum is up ~11% since mid-December #Stagflation

Lithium reached an all time high in January of 2022, it is up ~50% in the last month, ~500% in the last year #Stagflation

Magnesium increased ~43% since December 1 #Stagflation

Rhodium is what makes catalytic converters clean vehicle emissions, it is up ~26% since December 1 #Stagflation

"The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the United States increased to a 3-month high of 98.9 in December of 2021 from 98.4 in November, beating market forecasts of 98.6. The rise was driven by more firms planning to increase employment& capital outlays, improving earnings&.."

"...a slight recovery in expectations of business conditions over the next 6 months. The share of owners RAISING average selling prices decreased two points to 57%.
49% of owners reported job openings that could not be filled"
 source: National Federation of Independent Business

"China's producer price inflation eased to 10.3 percent year-on-year in December 2021 from 12.9 percent in October and compared with market forecasts of 11.1 percent. This was the lowest reading since August, reflecting the effect of the government's measures to secure supply..

"..and control surging commodity prices. Cost of means of production moderated (13.4 percent vs 17.0 percent in November), led by extraction (44.2 percent vs 60.5 percent), raw materials (19.7 percent vs 25.0 percent)& processing (8.2 percent vs 10.1 percent). At the same time..

"..consumer goods inflation was unchanged (at 1.0 percent), amid further rises in prices of food (1.4 percent vs 1.6 percent), daily use goods (1.4 percent vs 1.4 percent), and clothing (1.0 percent vs 1.2 percent)cost of consumer durables picked up (0.4 percent vs 0.1 percent)..

"..On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 1.2 percent after being unchanged in November. For full 2021, factory-gate inflation was at 8.1 percent."
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

"Wholesale prices in Germany jumped at a record 16.6% year-on-year in November of 2021, following a 15.2% rise in the previous month, mainly due to cost of raw materials and intermediate products. The largest impact came from cost of mineral oil products (62.4%).

"..upward pressure came from prices of residual materials (+77.4%); metals& semi-finished metal products (+60.3%); raw & sawn timber (+41.1%); grain, raw tobacco, seeds& animal feed (+30.3%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices were up 1.3%"
source: Federal Statistical Office

what is a 'strong' dollar and why it matters to inflation:
US dollar is said to be strong if it is increasing its value against other currencies that we use for trade. The relative strength of the dollar affects inflation. Probably the most important measure is 'Dollar Index'...

USDollar Index or DXY measures performance of the dollar against a basket of other currencies including the EURO, by far, the largest component of the index, making up 57.6% of the basket followed by JPYen (13.6%), GBPound (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), Krona (4.2%)& Swiss Franc (3.6%)...

as a worker, you want the DXY above 100, which means the dollar is 'strong' or gaining in value against foreign currencies. This makes imports cheaper& since we import everything, this stretches your buying power further. Businesses want a 'weak' dollar to make exports cheaper...

guess which policy the government has been favoring for the past few decades? mid 80's and mid90's were tthestrongest times for consumers and you cna see the dollar climbing on hte chart. Recently, you can see that whenever we even get near 100, the Fed steps in to raise rates...

the Fed is forced to raise interest rates when inflation gets to high, like now. So when they do, it'll also weaken your buying power. So, to stop prices rising, the Fed will make everything you buy more expensive. But it will help Coca-Cola& isnt that all that really matters?...

and yes, Coke will also have a weaker dollar, but they'll just go into the bond market and buy billions of dollars worth of bonds that are guaranteed to rise in value, as they are tied to the Fed rates increases. This inflation hedge makes profit on top of export price increases

money supply should grow at the same rate as the economy
"Broad M2 money supply in China rose 9.0% from a year earlier to CNY 238.29 trillion in December 2021, following an 8.5% increase in the previous month and beating market expectations of 8.7%"
source: People's Bank of China

chart above shows how china stuck to their monetary policy, while we diverged wildly, throwing money at any suit on wall street like the whores they are. Jerome Powell &Fed Board of bored apes did that cause they cant think of anything else to do in crisis but wipe rich ppls butt