Thread by @robfordmancs

I think Cummings is right here - this is a faulty inference from social media, where there are two very active "sides" with intense and increasingly entrenched prefs. Polling shows public aren't like that at all on Covid though - instinctively cautious & responsive to new info

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1480832735459565570

This is also what we would expect from incentives. Brexit encourages expressive preferences signalling tribal affiliation because stakes are v low for most people. COVID incentivises accuracy and responsiveness because stakes are high (literally life & death

I also don't think there's much meaningful read-across from Brexit to COVID attitudes, again due to incentives. Leave elites have tried to push libertarian, anti-mask, anti-lockdown messages. Fallen flat w/Leave voters (older, poorer) who don't buy into ideas that cld kill them

I also think Cummings is right that there is an "if you have a hammer everything is a nail" dynamic with parts of the commentariat, who are extremely partisan and view world through that lens. Partisan bias is a pervasive thing, but it has limits. Context matters.

Dynamics can of course be different in highly engaged, highly partisan elite groups - a "pick a side" dynamic could be emerging for example within the Conservative party elite, with overlaps to existing factional/tribal affiliations.