1/4
people are often confused about the impact of automation on employment and the consumption balance. One argument is that automation and robots will reduce the number of workers needed, and so also reduce the consumption share of GDP.
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
2/4
One of the experts cited here makes this point: "Automation helps upgrade manufacturing and the supply chain, but it does little to help domestic consumption and the ageing problem.”
3/4
This isn't really true. Automation and robots increase the productivity of workers, and if wages keep pace with this increase in workers' productivity, employment and consumption will rise in line with production.
4/4
That's because in that case workers who are replaced by robots will find new jobs servicing the higher consumption of the remaining workers. Automation is always a good thing if the associated rise in productivity is matched by rising wages.

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More from @michaelxpettis

11 Jan
1/4
"Mr. Dalio said he thought that through its own system, the U.S. 'needs more common prosperity, a lot of countries do.' His presentation showed U.S. wealth and income gaps at heights last hit in the 1930s."
wsj.com/articles/bridg… via @WSJ
2/4
The irony – which I think passed over Dalio – is that while the US (and many others) would benefit greatly from common-prosperity type programs that redistribute income from the extremely rich to the middle and working classes, these won't benefit China nearly as much.
3/4
That's because the problem in China is not just income inequality within the household sector but, far more importantly, the huge disparity between the share government receives and that received (directly and indirectly) by the household sector.
Read 4 tweets
11 Jan
1/11
Good piece by Matt Klein on the recent surge in American household savings. Many economist claim that the US runs persistent current account deficits mainly because American households persistently save too little.
theovershoot.co/p/are-americas…
2/11
If this were true, the surge in US household savings should have resulted in a contraction in the US current account deficit. The current account deficit, after all, is equal by definition to US investment less US savings. This is just one of the B-o-P identities.
3/11
And yet the US current account deficit has itself surged. How can this be? US investment has risen somewhat, and the B-o-P identity requires that a rise in US investment and a surge in the US current account deficit together require a huge decline in other US savings,
Read 12 tweets
9 Jan
1/7
"The key to a sustainable consumer economy is higher incomes for the bottom tiers in society and a stronger middle class," according to Shirley Ze Yu. This newly minted middle class, she goes on, "will continue...
scmp.com/comment/opinio… via @scmpnews
2/7
to urbanise, purchase homes and cars, utilise services including food delivery, tourism and education, and add to the urban industrial workforce. They are not only the drivers of China’s consumption but the power behind its industrialisation."
3/7
While its good that the necessary role of consumption has become widely acknowledged, this is still only part of the story. The key is not just more consumption. What China more urgently needs are policies that also boost the consumption share of GDP.
Read 7 tweets
8 Jan
1/6
Interesting article. it seems that the State Council has announced a pilot program designed to give markets a “decisive role” in the allocation of land, labor, capital, entrepreneurship, and technology.
caixinglobal.com/2022-01-07/chi…
2/6
This includes, according to Caixin, liberalizing restrictions on land use and supply, restrictions on labor mobility created by the hukou system, and restrictions on capital markets. Basically Beijing wants all factors of production to be allocated by market needs.
3/6
While this makes a lot of sense in principle, I'd argue that until there is a major redistribution of income, along with the associated transformation of political institutions, these reforms really cannot be implemented without a very sharp fall in the economy's growth rate.
Read 6 tweets
6 Jan
1/6
According to one Chinese government policy adviser, “The major problems are all interconnected: debt, local government finances, housing prices and consumption. Which one do you solve first? The pressure is coming from many directions.”
ft.com/content/13476b…
2/6
He's right. Most of China's major economic problems are inter-related, and solving one of them requires that they all be solved simultaneously, which is why it is politically so difficult. Beijing cannot isolate each imbalance and solve it one at a time.
3/6
The key problem – and its key strength until about 15 years ago – is the imbalance in the distribution of income. As long as China was severely underinvested, this imbalance forced up domestic savings and resulted in rapid growth in productive investment and surging GDP.
Read 6 tweets
6 Jan
1/5
It seems, unsurprisingly, that the implementation of a much-anticipated property tax in China is likely to be postponed. As Bloomberg explains, "China has been talking about rolling out a nationwide property tax for over a decade."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @markets
2/5
But "nothing has happened so far, likely due to opposition from homeowners and developers who are afraid the levy would push prices lower." if they couldn't do it when the property market was soaring, how would they be able to do it now?
3/5
Beijing has been trying to change the relationship between the central government and local governments for nearly a decade, and the property tax was an important part of that process, but this was never going to be easy.
Read 5 tweets

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