1/6
Interesting article. it seems that the State Council has announced a pilot program designed to give markets a “decisive role” in the allocation of land, labor, capital, entrepreneurship, and technology.
caixinglobal.com/2022-01-07/chi…
2/6
This includes, according to Caixin, liberalizing restrictions on land use and supply, restrictions on labor mobility created by the hukou system, and restrictions on capital markets. Basically Beijing wants all factors of production to be allocated by market needs.
3/6
While this makes a lot of sense in principle, I'd argue that until there is a major redistribution of income, along with the associated transformation of political institutions, these reforms really cannot be implemented without a very sharp fall in the economy's growth rate.
4/6
The reason, after all, for high levels of "non-market" allocation is the need to invest large amounts of savings into non-productive property and infrastructure projects. Only this way can Beijing achieve the high growth rates the economy cannot otherwise deliver.
5/6
But high investment is the automatic counterpart to low consumption, which is itself the consequence of distorted income distribution. This is just arithmetic, and without government support, the private sector would never get involved in these investments.
6/6
I'd argue that the non-market allocation of factors of production is not an unfortunate accident that has accompanied the country's growth model. It is a fundamental part of the growth model.
ft.com/content/907740…

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More from @michaelxpettis

9 Jan
1/7
"The key to a sustainable consumer economy is higher incomes for the bottom tiers in society and a stronger middle class," according to Shirley Ze Yu. This newly minted middle class, she goes on, "will continue...
scmp.com/comment/opinio… via @SCMPNews
2/7
to urbanise, purchase homes and cars, utilise services including food delivery, tourism and education, and add to the urban industrial workforce. They are not only the drivers of China’s consumption but the power behind its industrialisation."
3/7
While its good that the necessary role of consumption has become widely acknowledged, this is still only part of the story. The key is not just more consumption. What China more urgently needs are policies that also boost the consumption share of GDP.
Read 7 tweets
6 Jan
1/6
According to one Chinese government policy adviser, “The major problems are all interconnected: debt, local government finances, housing prices and consumption. Which one do you solve first? The pressure is coming from many directions.”
ft.com/content/13476b…
2/6
He's right. Most of China's major economic problems are inter-related, and solving one of them requires that they all be solved simultaneously, which is why it is politically so difficult. Beijing cannot isolate each imbalance and solve it one at a time.
3/6
The key problem – and its key strength until about 15 years ago – is the imbalance in the distribution of income. As long as China was severely underinvested, this imbalance forced up domestic savings and resulted in rapid growth in productive investment and surging GDP.
Read 6 tweets
6 Jan
1/5
It seems, unsurprisingly, that the implementation of a much-anticipated property tax in China is likely to be postponed. As Bloomberg explains, "China has been talking about rolling out a nationwide property tax for over a decade."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @markets
2/5
But "nothing has happened so far, likely due to opposition from homeowners and developers who are afraid the levy would push prices lower." if they couldn't do it when the property market was soaring, how would they be able to do it now?
3/5
Beijing has been trying to change the relationship between the central government and local governments for nearly a decade, and the property tax was an important part of that process, but this was never going to be easy.
Read 5 tweets
5 Jan
1/4
The RCEP consists of six countries with large current account surpluses that are structural in nature (China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia), two countries that are currently running large surpluses but that...
scmp.com/economy/global… via @scmpnews
2/4
normally run deficits (Australia and Indonesia), one country with a small structural surplus (Vietnam), two countries with flexible current accounts (Philippines and New Zealand), and four countries too small to matter (Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar).
3/4
A rough calculation suggests that balances of the seven countries that run structural surpluses are equal to 6-8 times the absolute value of the balances of the remaining 8 countries. The collective GDP of the former is 7 times the collective GDP of the latter.
Read 4 tweets
5 Jan
1/14
Very important paper by @AdamYLiu1, Jean Oi and Yi Zhang. The authors explain the the switch in the locus of borrowing to local governments and their proxies (the LGFVs) as part of a “Grand Bargain” imposed by Zhu Rongji.
2/14
They show that in the 1990s, “While increasing the center’s share of the tax revenues, Beijing needed to find ways to keep the provincial and local governments viable and motivated by allowing them to enjoy fiscal fruits of their own efforts.”
3/14
The solution? “The central government was ready to ‘tie its hands’ and grant full fiscal autonomy to the localities as long as they gave the center the newly increased amount of tax revenues stipulated in the 1994 reform.”
Read 14 tweets
5 Jan
1/6
The banking system is struggling to meet loan quotas while keeping bad debt under control. "Chinese bank rushed to meet their annual state-imposed lending quotas last month by buying up low-risk financial instruments rather than issue loans."
ft.com/content/70451e…
2/6
The article goes on to cite one banker as saying: “The authorities want us to support the real economy while keeping bad debts under control. That is difficult to achieve in the current business environment.”
3/6
In fact this has been the heart of the problem in the Chinese economy for the past 10-15 years. The banking sector is responsible for boosting economic activity to meet high GDP growth targets but, in so doing, has had to run up enormous debts that cannot be repaid.
Read 6 tweets

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