Here's my weekly analysis of cases, deaths, vaccinations and restrictions.
At the global level, Omicron has driven an amazing surge in the last 2 weeks.
I've added a % Positive chart - this helps to spot when testing is overwhelmed (so infections are likely under-reported).
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Australia is one of the worst affected countries (on a population basis). Restrictions were dropped in mid-December, ignoring the risk from multiple Omicron super-spreader events.
Testing has effectively collapsed - % Positive has soared to 31%, many infections are undiscovered.
In Denmark, both the cases and % positive appear to have peaked.
Deaths are at ~100 per week or ~170 per 10M. But as they typically lag cases by 3 weeks, we can expect them to increase, sadly.
Victoria time-shifted distribution update for 10 Jan 22:
A forecast of outcomes from severe COVID-19, based on active cases:
- hospitalisations (2,210* by 15 Jan)
- ICU (737 by 20 Jan*)
- cases needing ventilation (246 by 25 Jan*)
- deaths (2,304 by 30 Jan)
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* As actual numbers had drifted from the forecasts for some series, I've adjusted the settings:
- hospitalisations now 0.9% (was 1.4%)
- ICU now 0.3% with 10-day lag (was 8-day)
- ventilation now 0.1% with 15-day lag (was 10-day)
A big drop in the hospitalisation % - good news!
The lags for ICU and ventilation have now returned to their pre-Delta settings, which appear to give a closer fit.
New South Wales time-shifted distribution update for 10 Jan 22:
A forecast of outcomes from severe COVID-19, based on active cases:
- hospitalisations (3,387* by 15 Jan)
- ICU (677 by 20 Jan*)
- cases needing ventilation (339 by 25* Jan)
- deaths (3,291 by 30 Jan)
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* As gaps were opening up between the actual and forecast for some series, I've adjusted the % Expected:
- hospitalisations now 1.0% (was 1.4%)
- ICU now 0.2% with 10-day lag (was 8-day)
- ventilation now 0.1% with 15-day lag (was 10-day)
The lags for ICU and ventilation have now returned to their pre-Delta settings, which appears to give a closer fit.
Here's an analysis of cases, deaths and vaccinations, for Australia, broken down by state/territory.
First at the national level. Cases have more than tripled in the latest week, as "let it rip" policies have allowed rampant Omicron spread in most regions.
Denmark was the only comparable country with a higher case rate in the prior week.
Their Omicron outbreak built on many weeks of Delta spread, which was not the case in much of Australia.
New South Wales has led the "let it rip" / "live with the virus" charge. They have not yet started including RAT counts, so the cases are only what could be processed by their overwhelmed PCR testing capacity.
Deaths typically lag cases by 3 weeks, so are starting to increase.
Queensland time-shifted distribution update for 8 Jan 22:
A forecast of outcomes from severe COVID-19, based on active cases:
- hospitalisations (1,096* by 13 Jan)
- ICU (129* by 16 Jan)
- cases needing ventilation (64 by 18 Jan)**
- deaths (467 by 28 Jan)
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As actual numbers had drifted from the forecasts for several series, I've adjusted the % Expected:
- hospitalisations now 1.7% (was 2.4%)
- ICU now 0.2% (was 0.3%)
** actual cases currently needing ventilation are so low they are below the bounds of this forecasting tool.
Sadly, deaths are slightly ahead of the forecast, noting the sample size is very small.
With very high levels of Omicron, QLD might be experiencing the same affect as SA - deaths occurring sooner than for Delta outbreaks.
South Australia time-shifted distribution update for 8 Jan 22:
A forecast of outcomes from severe COVID-19, based on active cases:
- hospitalisations (322* by 13 Jan)
- ICU (69* by 16 Jan)
- cases needing ventilation (23 by 18 Jan)
- deaths (167 by 23 Jan)
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* As actual numbers had drifted from the forecasts for several series, I've adjusted the % Expected:
- hospitalisations now 1.0% (was 1.3%)
- ICU now 0.2% (was 0.3%)
** actual cases currently needing ventilation are so low they are below the bounds of this forecasting tool.
South Australia is the purest Omicron outbreak worldwide, based on genomic sequencing data.
Comparing to other Australian states (where Delta is more prevalent), the differences are:
- hospitalisation & vent % are lower
- death lag is shorter (note: small sample size)