Here's the latest variant picture for BA.2 (Omicron), the lesser-known sibling of BA.1 (Omicron).

It has started to appear at surprisingly high frequencies in several countries - those who shared the most samples are shown here.
🧵
Note the Frequency is calculated for each country independently, comparing to all the recent samples sequenced in that country.
Here's the latest variant picture for the Philippines.

Perhaps this startling picture can be discounted, as the sample sizes are very small. They have reported 20 samples of BA.2 (Omicron).
Here's the latest variant picture for India.

It appears that BA.2 (Omicron) is successfully competing with its sibling lineage BA.1.

BA.2 has risen recently to ~50%, while BA.1 has declined from a peak of ~60%.
Here's the latest variant picture for Denmark.

BA.1 (Omicron) appears to have plateaued at around 70% frequency.

Meanwhile, its sibling BA.2 (Omicron) is rising steadily - recently up to 20%.

The Delta lineages have declined to ~1%.
Here's the latest variant picture for Sweden.

BA.1 (Omicron) appears to have plateaued at around 70% frequency.

Its sibling BA.2 (Omicron) seems stuck below 10%.
Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom.

BA.1 (Omicron) appears to have plateaued at around 90% frequency.

Its sibling BA.2 (Omicron) is present but at a tiny frequency: <0.1%.
Here's the latest variant picture for South Africa.

BA.1 (Omicron) is very dominant at around 95% frequency, although recent sample sizes are low.

Its sibling BA.2 and parent B.1.1.529 are present, but at very low frequencies: <5%.
Interactive dataviz here:
github.com/Mike-Honey/cov…
Here’s an explanation of how widely different BA.2 is:

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More from @Mike_Honey_

11 Jan
Here's my weekly analysis of cases, deaths, vaccinations and restrictions.

At the global level, Omicron has driven an amazing surge in the last 2 weeks.

I've added a % Positive chart - this helps to spot when testing is overwhelmed (so infections are likely under-reported).
🧵
Australia is one of the worst affected countries (on a population basis). Restrictions were dropped in mid-December, ignoring the risk from multiple Omicron super-spreader events.

Testing has effectively collapsed - % Positive has soared to 31%, many infections are undiscovered.
In Denmark, both the cases and % positive appear to have peaked.

Deaths are at ~100 per week or ~170 per 10M. But as they typically lag cases by 3 weeks, we can expect them to increase, sadly.
Read 11 tweets
10 Jan
Victoria time-shifted distribution update for 10 Jan 22:

A forecast of outcomes from severe COVID-19, based on active cases:

- hospitalisations (2,210* by 15 Jan)
- ICU (737 by 20 Jan*)
- cases needing ventilation (246 by 25 Jan*)
- deaths (2,304 by 30 Jan)
🧵
* As actual numbers had drifted from the forecasts for some series, I've adjusted the settings:
- hospitalisations now 0.9% (was 1.4%)
- ICU now 0.3% with 10-day lag (was 8-day)
- ventilation now 0.1% with 15-day lag (was 10-day)

A big drop in the hospitalisation % - good news!
The lags for ICU and ventilation have now returned to their pre-Delta settings, which appear to give a closer fit.
Read 4 tweets
10 Jan
New South Wales time-shifted distribution update for 10 Jan 22:

A forecast of outcomes from severe COVID-19, based on active cases:
- hospitalisations (3,387* by 15 Jan)
- ICU (677 by 20 Jan*)
- cases needing ventilation (339 by 25* Jan)
- deaths (3,291 by 30 Jan)
🧵
* As gaps were opening up between the actual and forecast for some series, I've adjusted the % Expected:
- hospitalisations now 1.0% (was 1.4%)
- ICU now 0.2% with 10-day lag (was 8-day)
- ventilation now 0.1% with 15-day lag (was 10-day)
The lags for ICU and ventilation have now returned to their pre-Delta settings, which appears to give a closer fit.
Read 5 tweets
9 Jan
Here's an analysis of cases, deaths and vaccinations, for Australia, broken down by state/territory.

First at the national level. Cases have more than tripled in the latest week, as "let it rip" policies have allowed rampant Omicron spread in most regions.
Denmark was the only comparable country with a higher case rate in the prior week.

Their Omicron outbreak built on many weeks of Delta spread, which was not the case in much of Australia.
New South Wales has led the "let it rip" / "live with the virus" charge. They have not yet started including RAT counts, so the cases are only what could be processed by their overwhelmed PCR testing capacity.

Deaths typically lag cases by 3 weeks, so are starting to increase.
Read 11 tweets
8 Jan
Queensland time-shifted distribution update for 8 Jan 22:

A forecast of outcomes from severe COVID-19, based on active cases:
- hospitalisations (1,096* by 13 Jan)
- ICU (129* by 16 Jan)
- cases needing ventilation (64 by 18 Jan)**
- deaths (467 by 28 Jan)
🧵 Image
As actual numbers had drifted from the forecasts for several series, I've adjusted the % Expected:
- hospitalisations now 1.7% (was 2.4%)
- ICU now 0.2% (was 0.3%)

** actual cases currently needing ventilation are so low they are below the bounds of this forecasting tool.
Sadly, deaths are slightly ahead of the forecast, noting the sample size is very small.

With very high levels of Omicron, QLD might be experiencing the same affect as SA - deaths occurring sooner than for Delta outbreaks.
Read 4 tweets
8 Jan
South Australia time-shifted distribution update for 8 Jan 22:

A forecast of outcomes from severe COVID-19, based on active cases:
- hospitalisations (322* by 13 Jan)
- ICU (69* by 16 Jan)
- cases needing ventilation (23 by 18 Jan)
- deaths (167 by 23 Jan)
🧵 Image
* As actual numbers had drifted from the forecasts for several series, I've adjusted the % Expected:
- hospitalisations now 1.0% (was 1.3%)
- ICU now 0.2% (was 0.3%)

** actual cases currently needing ventilation are so low they are below the bounds of this forecasting tool.
South Australia is the purest Omicron outbreak worldwide, based on genomic sequencing data.

Comparing to other Australian states (where Delta is more prevalent), the differences are:
- hospitalisation & vent % are lower
- death lag is shorter (note: small sample size)
Read 6 tweets

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