Unless I'm way off, the instances where Bragg plans to (systematically) plead around the "unless required by law" mand-mins for all viol felonies higher than Class E are:

1. A narrow set of commercial robberies where no one is at risk of real injury.

That's it.
(b) isn't a violent crime (not how we count weapons charges), and doesn't involve guns. Anyway, in 2019 a grand total of 55 ppl were sent to prison from Manhattan for 265.02.

(c) and (d) lower the felony to D--still mandatory prison time.

(e) is about drug possession.
"He's not going to send anyone to prison for violence anymore!"*

* For one narrow category of case, under some situations, and supervisors can override for "extraordinary reasons," which includes prior criminal history.
And to be clear, my targets here are the fearmongerers who completely mischaracterized this memo, not the memo itself (which is promising!).

It's important to note the over-statement, bc these sorts of overclaims are used to undermine reform efforts.
We consistently see the rise in shootings and homicides in 2020 attributed to over-exaggerated reforms, which insulates the dominant status quo from criticism.

Same risk here. If violence rises in 2022, bet ppl will blame the cartoonish descriptions of what Bragg (didn't) say.

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More from @JohnFPfaff

12 Jan
This is a really intriguing article, though not for the reasons I think it was intended.

I think it demonstrates how impoverished our thinking about what accountability is or can be, and how that inhibits efforts to push for deeper, more substantial changes.
The crime here is serious, and that no one died or was seriously hurt is fortuitous.

Trent set fire to his ex's apartment at night while she slept, out of anger. She and her roommates escaped, but... that doesn't always happen.

Ends up serving 6 months.
Here's what makes it so intriguing.

Trent himself admits he did something wrong. Trent himself feels like he needs to atone more, take more accountability.

But our options (conceptually) are basically: prison, or nothing. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
10 Jan
Gotta say, the more I think abt it, the angrier I get abt the CDC saying life expectancy at birth fell by 1.8 years from 2019 to 2020.

We had a huge spike in mortality, yes. And one in morbidity that will def shorten lives in the future.

But the number here is total gibberish.
To start, Covid might have ~0 impact on expectancy AT BIRTH. Maybe it will—maybe kids exposed at birth or in utero will be sicker. Or maybe it made them longer, by jumpstarting mRNA therapies.

But a static accounting based on 2020 data is … beyond meaningless.
It’s faux quantification of a health shock not easily reduced to a single headline number. Easily repeated, seemingly meaningful… and completely meaningless—at best.
Read 5 tweets
10 Jan
What, exactly, does the decline mean? I read the CDC report, still don’t get it.

The major cause (obv!) is Covid, but a 1.8 yr decline at birth doesn’t mean we actually expect a baby born in 2020 to live less bc of Covid, does it? There’s no way the data they have can say that.
How can mortality data from 2020–a year w/out vaccines for most of it—predict mortality outcomes ~80 years from now?

Or is it just dawning on me that life expectancy estimates based just on mortality data without a LOT of extra modeling rest on a lot of stability assumptions?
It also attributes some of the AT-BIRTH decline in life expectancy to the rise in homicide, which… again. The homicide rate could move a lot in the 10-15 yrs, which is when it’ll impact the life expectancies of kids born in 2020.
Read 4 tweets
10 Jan
I think conditional outcomes is a huge thing we don't think about enough in general. Like when talking about crime during Covid.

Did, for example, crime in the subway in NYC go up or down? It's... actually really hard to say, bc it all depends on what we condition on.
The raw data--victimizations per 1M riders--suggested an increase, in no small part bc total ridership plunged.

But... the plunge wasn't random. What if those who started WFH were always less likely to be victimized in the first place?
That was almost surely the case.

Park Slopers who already took the subway at peak rush hour from a safe Brooklyn station to a safe Manhattan station stopped taking the train.

Late night workers, early morning shifts? They were now "essential workers" and still on the train.
Read 7 tweets
10 Jan
As someone whose work relies almost entirely on government-gathered data, there are times I just feel like throwing in the towel.

We cover up bad policy by screwing with the data (this, CDC and police killings, etc etc), then use that bad data to justify the policies.
Then too many journalists cover that data as (roughly-enough) legitimate--though seeing some encouraging pushback recently w crime data.

And, honestly? Too many academics throw the shoddy data into a fancy model and make bold claims with it (see, e.g., everything using the UCR).
I have a paper I'm completely frozen on bc I can't figure out if it's even okay to really use UCR data to say anything anymore.

And we're going to spend YEARS trying to figure out exactly what happened w Covid--meaning, what the numbers really ARE.
Read 5 tweets
10 Jan
If I have one goal for 2022—I’m keeping my expectations REALLY low this orbit—it’s that the word “preprint” gets shredded, set on fire, launched into the sun, and purged from all uses past, present, and future.

Just call it a “working paper.”
“Preprint” sounds so official. First time I heard it, I honestly thought it meant the on-line version of a piece that was accepted for peer-reviewed publication, posted to the journal’s website before the hard copies come out.
I just means “working paper.”

It just means “potentially unreviewed pile of words and analysis anyone with access to an on-line repository can throw up on the internet and then use a needlessly misleading term to make sound more vetted than it is.”
Read 5 tweets

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