A useful strategic framework for thinking about startups comes from the work of military strategist John Boyd. His OODA "loop" was developed to explain why some pilots won in air combat, but works as a profound mediation about dealing with uncertainty & using pacing to win 1/5
The basic idea is that, in combat, pilots go through repeated cycles of:
👁️Observation, gathering data
🧠Orientation, analysis of data, drawing on background & mental state
↔️Decision, choice of action to take
🎆Action, making a decision happen
Whoever does the loops faster, wins
Boyd argued that the loop applies to companies, too. If you can "get inside the OODA loop" of your competitor, you have the advantage. By the time they even notice a market is there, you have identified an opportunity, gathered data, tried an approach, and learned from mistakes.
Researchers & managers have developed a suite of approaches that companies can take to tighten their OODA loops, for example: design thinking for ideation; experiment-driven methods & lean startups for early exploration; and agile for product development. cbinsights.com/research/direc…
Boyd's theories are complex (and ultimately become overly speculative and grand for my taste ), but the core ideas are very powerful. They and best described in this paper from a friend of Boyd (which has lots of examples), which focuses on the OODA loop. fhs.brage.unit.no/fhs-xmlui/bits…
As for some of the techniques in the thread to tighten OODA Loops... If you want to experiment with classic approaches to design thinking, Stanford’s d school has a series of free “mixtapes” that introduce you to various design thinking methods. dschool.stanford.edu/resources/char…
On methods for rapid startup experimentation, including lean and other approaches, see this thread 👇
And on doing fast data-driven AB testing to tighten your OODA loop, see this thread on experimentation & Test-and-Roll.

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More from @emollick

28 Dec 21
My favorite paper for reflecting on before the New Year asks the key question: how can we be happier?

The world's top happiness scholars ranked the best strategies for individual & societal happiness, here are results listed by feasibility & effectiveness link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Effective individual happiness strategies:
👨‍👩‍👧‍👦Invest in family & friends
💃🏻Join a club
🙏Practice religion, if applicable
🤹‍♂️Be mentally & physically active
🌲Experience nature
🛌Sleep

Low effectiveness:
🧹Declutter
👨‍💻Self-employment
🍃Become vegan
🖥Eliminate screens
🏡Own a home
A related thread on money and happiness 👇 (one worthwhile caveat is that, while more money always seems to increase happiness, the happiness provided by each additional dollar is less as people get wealthier)
Read 4 tweets
20 Dec 21
On the 20th anniversary of the Lord of the Rings movies, a thread on science & Middle Earth. LOTR has been the subject of academic papers, as well as some great analyses by scientists from their disciplines. Here are some particularly great examples... 1/n theatlantic.com/health/archive…
Lets start with vulcanology: six-part tour of the geology of Lonely Mountain that explains why there is so much gold in the old volcano, among many other things. 2/n
pascals-puppy.blogspot.com/2013/12/unnatu…
While Tolkien’s volcanos hold promise, his mountain ranges were messed up. Geologist & science fiction author @katsudonburi explains the issues with Tolkien’s mountain ranges (written before plate tectonics was a known thing) 3/n tor.com/2017/08/01/tol…
Read 6 tweets
8 Dec 21
Expert critics are dead inside. People become experts in things they love, but by doing so, they lose their sense of joy: "Across seven studies... we found consistent evidence that expertise leads to emotional numbness"

Refocusing on your emotional reactions brings the joy back! Image
Basically this.
Here's the paper: academic.oup.com/jcr/article/48…. And anyone who wants to nitpick the data and methods should obviously instead refocus on the emotional highs that reading academic papers originally gave them 😜 Image
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec 21
I am haunted by two papers on how much we hate hard thinking:
⚡️2/3 of men & 1/4 of women choose to shock themselves rather than sit & think for 6-15 minutes
🔥28% of people chose pain they rated as "extremely intense" for 20 seconds over spending 20 seconds solving a hard puzzle ImageImageImageImage
In general, when bored & given a chance to think, we instead just turn evil. In preregistered studies of 7,000 people, boredom is linked to sadism. 18% of bored people killed worms (2% of non-bored), and bored parents & soldiers both act more sadistically! psyarxiv.com/r67xg/ Image
It’s one reason why violent video games actually reduce crime - people are at home entertained versus out & bored.
Read 4 tweets
1 Dec 21
Despite all of the speculation about how startups can now be located anywhere, Silicon Valley, New York City, and Boston received 66% of all VC 💰in the US in Q3, 2021. The exact same percentage as in 2017.

Austin & Miami each had less than 2% of VC 💰 (Philly beats them both!)
Also, just to show how geographically skewed VC funding remains: Boston startups alone raised about as much money in Q3, 2021 as EVERY venture-funded startup in France and Germany put together in the same period!

I love Boston, but France and Germany have even more smaht people.
This is not to suggest that places like Miami and Austin couldn't eventually rival established tech hubs (the world would be better with more thriving hubs) but the forces that keep Silicon Valley (& Boston & NYC) on top are powerful. Here are 7 of them 👇
Read 4 tweets
18 Nov 21
Knowing true information can sometimes cause harm (think of the annoyance of seeing spoilers as a tiny example). This paper on information hazards is a preview to many of the issues we face today.

So, a 🧵 on some surprising hazards of knowledge... 1/ nickbostrom.com/information-ha…
Ideological hazards: Most people have only a little knowledge about what their ideological belief (whether religious or political) really encompasses. On the web, you can learn that your chosen belief system also includes hazardous elements that you feel you need to adopt. 2/
Evocation hazards: there may be particular information that, when people encounter it, triggers them. This is not just in the common sense of triggering past trauma, but that some conspiracy theories or memes might be unusually tempting to people in particular mental states. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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