What on earth could the PM say at PMQs? We don’t know. But to speculate, some options. 1/ A major mea culpa. Accept gatherings happened that looked inappropriate, possibly someone goes. Say sorry, even while arguing somehow rules weren’t broken on work grounds. 2/…
Argue that PM was not aware of the invitation or organisation of the May 20 drinks. Theoretically could try to repeat defence from the Guardian photo gathering - thought it was in work talking about work with drinks. We don’t know yet for sure PM knew about Reynolds email. 3/…
Any argument that rules weren’t broken would likely have No10’s unique position as work / home / centre of government at its heart. People were working all hours, boundaries blurred, work events with social element were problematic but not deliberately ill-intentioned, etc. 4/…
There is a belief among some Johnson loyalists that people will need to go eventually over this. Reynolds position feels most precarious given email. Question is when: today means fewer people there for when Gray report drops; wait till then means pressure remains today. Or 5/…
…Buy time by broadly sticking to position adopted in last 36hrs. Argue it is up for Sue Gray to look at everything in round, confirm attendance for some point of May 20 drinks, argue it was work-linked but avoid specifics + say Gray will judge. But would that frustrate Tory MPs?
The challenge is all of the above is confined by three dangers. 1/ The Met investigates 2/ The PM confirms behaviour that broke lockdown rules 3/ The PM is accused of misleading Parliament.
In short: every move he could make is laced with political danger. We find out at noon.
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1/ Right. After a load of calls some clarity is emerging about what happened at Cabinet. In short: A lot of cab ministers made clear their concern about moving to tougher new restrictions now. Lots centred on the need for more data. With @christopherhope. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
2/ Cabinet gathering described by those in the room as discursive. A “wide range of viewpoints” shared. Unlike a lot of the cab meetings it does appear to have been a more general discussion about Omicron approach rather than a ‘here’s the plan, up or down’ meeting.
3/ Those arguing for caution on tougher restrictions can be split largely into two camps - cabinet ministers with economic briefs and those on the libertarian wing of the party / who are championing protection of freedoms.
The minutes from Thursday’s SAGE meeting have just dropped and they include this startling line:
“In England it is almost certain that there are now hundreds of thousands of new Omicron infections per day.”
Also this from Sage:
“Without intervention beyond those measures already in place (‘Plan B’), modelling indicates a peak of at least 3,000 hospital admissions per day in England.”
Take these two together - hundreds of thousands of new infections a day and hospitalisations hitting 3k a day even with Plan B - and it’s hard not to see the Government going for tighter restrictions soon.
Right. Specifics re Plan B have been bouncing round all day and still being finalised but here are some bits about where we are....
1/ A carve out on face masks is expected for hospitality sector, per two Gov sources. That's what went into system this morning. If so then no masks forced in pubs and restaurants.
2/ Has been debate all day about face masks coming back in classrooms but sounds like it WON'T happen. Again being finalised currently but one to watch