I see the much anticipated "peak" has been dropped as an idea by NPHET. Now it's just maybe happening according to modelling (which no real epidemiologists believe) and will be a long drawn out affair anyway.

Network scientists have a name for that. it's called an S curve.
It normally is used to describe an idea or product adoption curve, where adoption starts very slow, and then accelerates till everyone regularly adopts the product.

here the product is covid, and government have essentially handed it the market.
the idea of idea adoptions (or meme) or indeed product adoption on the one hand, and covid acquisition by a population on the other, seem to have some useful parallels.

Both are driven by social networks (physical rather than virtual). Both see clustering and breakout.
both have mavens, or superspreaders.
viewed as a product, covid spread makes a lot of sense. It even has a freemium lite version in the mids of the ignorant (omicron) that they seem willing to acquire just like a freemium product gains early adopters who read the word and encourage others to adopt.

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More from @Styo28183449

13 Jan
HSE PCR Testing News

Very interesting news.

Very substantial PCR test availability back in the system.

14th 22338
15th 21139
16th 19985

As you know, the HSE had reduced availability to 12k a day.
It's back up higher than recent weeks, despite PCR testing not being available for the majority of the population.

Hard to know why. Perhaps they are anticipating significant rises in cases of the remaining groups to be tested.

Perhaps they plan to reopen PCR testing to more
Anyway, here is the availability...


Carlow: 0
Cavan: 146
Clare: 639
Cork: 147
Donegal: 873
Dublin: 5,923
Galway: 1,697
Kerry: 0
Kildare: 1,083
Kilkenny: 356
Laois: 175
Leitrim: 119
Read 9 tweets
12 Jan
As you may know I've been tracking PCR testing closely for the last 7/8 weeks.

I want to make this very clear.

There is no general self-referral HSE PCR testing system in this country anymore.

The HSE offers just 12-13k test appointments in 12 counties ...
...to a small group of citizens who have a positive antigen test (despite high false negative rates), who are not aged 4-39, or who are healthcare workers.

Despite this, all available appointments book out rapidly just after release at midnight across most of the country.
The state typically dos about 30-40k tests a day. A country of comparable size, Denmark, does about 200,000+ tests a day.

Ireland is a test free zone in comparison.
Read 13 tweets
12 Jan
When you hear the name Stephen Donelly, do you think of
And why does Twitter polls always drop the last letter? Thats a weird bug
9.3% of 54 votes. I give you the Irish times readership.
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec 21
We really have to hit this nail of the head: omicron is less severe so it will be all right.

Lets take the extreme new claim. 70% less severe.Lets believe it for a moment.

so if 100 cases was delivering 10 hospitalisations, not it's only delivering 3.
Here is the problem.

omicron grows the number of cases, doubling every 2 days.

So after 4 days you have 400 cases.

3% of 400 is 12.

So you have more cases that with the original strain.
And from here it gets worse.

because omicron keeps doubling every 2 days, the next doubling will yield 800 cases, of which, I'm sure you're getting it now, 24 will be hospitalisations.
Read 29 tweets
23 Dec 21
HSE PCR Test Availability Report

This is the worst day on record.

Just 220 left in Donegal. These will run out shortly.

The average wait time for a PCR test is now in excess of 2 days across the country.

About 3,000 appointments/hr are being missed.

gets worse tomorrow.
Any attempt by the HSE to report on the total volume of cases is now hopelessly wrong.

Any reporting of HSE case rates without explaining this is now lying by omission.

nobody knows how many cases there are now, but we can make reasonable extrapolations.
Read 8 tweets
23 Dec 21
What I've learned during covid.

There is a very thin line between optimism and denial, and most people seem to cross it regularly.
The "optimist" looks at this graph, for example, and says "at least there is availability in donegal".

The realist looks at the optimist and wonder what is he smoking?
my conclusion is that anyone who consistently looks for the up side of a situation has a kind of mental brittleness has a character flaw not a strength.

I'm actually an infuriatingly optimistic person. But there is nothing optimistic about our position with covid. it's all bad.
Read 4 tweets

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