HSE PCR Test Availability Report
This is the worst day on record.
Just 220 left in Donegal. These will run out shortly.
The average wait time for a PCR test is now in excess of 2 days across the country.
About 3,000 appointments/hr are being missed.
gets worse tomorrow.
This is the worst day on record.
Just 220 left in Donegal. These will run out shortly.
The average wait time for a PCR test is now in excess of 2 days across the country.
About 3,000 appointments/hr are being missed.
gets worse tomorrow.
Any attempt by the HSE to report on the total volume of cases is now hopelessly wrong.
Any reporting of HSE case rates without explaining this is now lying by omission.
nobody knows how many cases there are now, but we can make reasonable extrapolations.
Any reporting of HSE case rates without explaining this is now lying by omission.
nobody knows how many cases there are now, but we can make reasonable extrapolations.
The first method is to extrapolate the known omicron case volume from Sunday when it accounted for 51% of cases, extrapolating known case rate growth for omicron, and assuming delta is static or declining moderately.
That gives a cautious 20k cases today and about 25k tomorrow.
That gives a cautious 20k cases today and about 25k tomorrow.
The second way is to estimate total demand for testing, and use the positivity rate to estimate how many would convert to infections.
Demand for self referral is about 3k/hr over 24 hours, which gives a 72k/day to which we add referred testing which is running at about 17k.
Demand for self referral is about 3k/hr over 24 hours, which gives a 72k/day to which we add referred testing which is running at about 17k.
that totals at about 89k tests a day demand, of which about 20% are positive, giving a very rough 18k cases a day.
These two methods of estimating correlate quite well.
The conclusion is that we are in or around 18-20k cases. a day.
These two methods of estimating correlate quite well.
The conclusion is that we are in or around 18-20k cases. a day.
The known growth rate with omicron is a doubling every 2 days, and has been seen there, based on growth in prevalence of 30% a day.
We are safe to assume that this growth rate will continue for some time.
Those who claim it will stop rapidly have no evidence basis for this.
We are safe to assume that this growth rate will continue for some time.
Those who claim it will stop rapidly have no evidence basis for this.
We have never seen covid cases arrest sharply without the introduction of significant containment measures.
Dr. David Nabarro is special Envoy on covid for the WHO. knows more about covid that you ever will.
Dr. David Nabarro is special Envoy on covid for the WHO. knows more about covid that you ever will.
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1471381740354682887
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