It takes remarkably little exposure to large solar projects and their developers before people realize it's actually industrial energy production, and a particularly low-fi form at that.
It's the opposite of the journey people take when discovering nuclear, typically.
Solar in theory: wow free energy from the sun! Heck yes!
Solar, reality: what the hell just happened to our community. Where is our forest
Nuclear in theory: seems odd...I get bad vibes from it
Nuclear, reality: this place is incredible and it's surrounded by nature! I love it
To say the very least, this increasing pushback solar and wind experience with increasing pubic exposure is rarely considered in spreadsheet decarbonization.
There's a reason Germany will have to substantially curtail local democracy to force wind turbines into its forests.
Nobody should make the mistake that this is only about keeping forests near rich people.
The conflict between ravenously land-hungry industrial development for renewables and preserving the actual environment itself will only expand:
INDIAN POINT NUCLEAR CLOSURE ALREADY CAUSING ENERGY SHORTAGES:
There's not enough natural gas to feed both the city and all the replacement gas turbines built to accommodate @NRDC's campaign to switch New York to 100% fossil energy.
NRDC hired their own energy experts, whatever frauds would come up with the obviously wrong answer that the city's biggest power plant, only significant one not powered by natural gas or fuel oil WASN'T NEEDED in an area with severe gas supply constraints
The physics and engineering of shielding and storing even the spiciest nuclear wastes are simple.
Social and psychological challenges cause people to ask "What about the waste?"
So the Dutch hired top artists and architects for @COVRA_nv
Engineering + pure vibes = waste SOLVED
If everyone with nuclear reactors built their own @COVRA_nv and schoolkids and politicians and cultural leaders got to hang out & vibe with their nuclear waste like we did here, there WOULD BE NO NUCLEAR WASTE PROBLEM.
At a fraction of the cost of silly holes like Yucca Mtn.
You must model the loss of transmission lines. You must model continent-wide wind droughts. You must model continent-wide droughts that knock out hydro.
If you're still selling 100% Wind-Water-Solar after that, you're a knave or a fool. Or both.
I don't have to model these things because I fundamentally distrust giant intricate energy models.
Shit goes wrong. Big shit. Crazy shit. Shit that's never gone wrong goes wrong.
I didn't predict what's happening now in the UK specifically, but that's the point: YOU CAN'T KNOW.
Texas weirded me out.
How it had been managing to have such crazy low revenue going to generators, but seemed ok.
How it was running with lower and lower reserves each year, but appeared to be fine.
Until it wasn't.
After the fatal blackouts energy modelers got another try.
Brussels erupts in cheers, nuclear advocates from around the world cheering Bryon, Dresden, Chicago, Illinois, USA, and nuclear plants fighting for survival around the world:
We must never lose another plant!
GERMANY: We must not lose Gundremmingen in December! We must not lose Grohnde! WE MUST NOT LOSE BROKDORF.
The general public has a misunderstanding that somehow, energy experts have found a way around wind and solar coming and going.
It's not true. THREAD.
Here we have Chief Energy Correspondent at Bloomberg News @JavierBlas patiently explaining record prices to a curious follower:
No matter how many tens of billions of £ are spent on wind and solar energy in the UK, it still turns off more or less daily.
It turns off in the UK as it turns off in surrounding countries.
There's no solution except more gas or electricity rationing.
Now gas is expensive.
This problem gets dramatically worse as you get more wind & solar, as these energy types soak up power system revenues when they're on, but must be expensively made up for when not on.
And more wind and solar means weather prediction errors become much more costly for society.
Earlier this year, I noted that the giant nuclear plant being built in the southwest of England, Hinkley Point C, now looks like it'll be a good deal after all if gas remains at all scarce: