MESSAGE TO ENERGY MODELERS:
You must model the loss of transmission lines. You must model continent-wide wind droughts. You must model continent-wide droughts that knock out hydro.
If you're still selling 100% Wind-Water-Solar after that, you're a knave or a fool. Or both.
You must model the loss of transmission lines. You must model continent-wide wind droughts. You must model continent-wide droughts that knock out hydro.
If you're still selling 100% Wind-Water-Solar after that, you're a knave or a fool. Or both.
I don't have to model these things because I fundamentally distrust giant intricate energy models.
Shit goes wrong. Big shit. Crazy shit. Shit that's never gone wrong goes wrong.
I didn't predict what's happening now in the UK specifically, but that's the point: YOU CAN'T KNOW.
Shit goes wrong. Big shit. Crazy shit. Shit that's never gone wrong goes wrong.
I didn't predict what's happening now in the UK specifically, but that's the point: YOU CAN'T KNOW.
Texas weirded me out.
How it had been managing to have such crazy low revenue going to generators, but seemed ok.
How it was running with lower and lower reserves each year, but appeared to be fine.
Until it wasn't.
After the fatal blackouts energy modelers got another try.
How it had been managing to have such crazy low revenue going to generators, but seemed ok.
How it was running with lower and lower reserves each year, but appeared to be fine.
Until it wasn't.
After the fatal blackouts energy modelers got another try.
Energy models projecting large amounts of weather-based energy plus transmission implicitly remove degrees of freedom from their grids.
It means that the combination of real-world problems that could take down the grid gets smaller and smaller. You won't see until it's too late.
It means that the combination of real-world problems that could take down the grid gets smaller and smaller. You won't see until it's too late.
There are so many errors and falsehoods going around #energytwitter about wind performing "better than expected" in the Texas blackouts.
This is patently untrue in the way it matters most: minimum hourly value.
Worse, ERCOT didn't apparently stack worst wind and gas scenarios.
This is patently untrue in the way it matters most: minimum hourly value.
Worse, ERCOT didn't apparently stack worst wind and gas scenarios.
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