The "I told you so" crowd acts as if we aren't dealing with a far-less-killy-more-spready variant (possibly engineered) in the context of lots more data, vaccines preventing almost all hospital deaths, and dramatically better treatment options.
We're seeing Dunning-Kruger on steroids as the people who were never trained in risk-management got one right-- as they often do -- with the simple rule "Everything experts/politicians do makes things worse."
But that group is only "right" because they are pairing their predictions made under situation A with outcomes happening under situation B. And no, they didn't predict situation B, except in the most obvious ways.
Our two-movies-on-one-screen reality will stay intact when the "told you so" people swarm into my comments to point out I was wrong about everything (because of my cowardice, they say) and now I am experiencing cognitive dissonance.
Test my prediction by looking in the comments to this thread for personal attacks on me and bizarre misinterpretations of what they believe I predicted. Those are tells for cognitive dissonance. Then compare to my actual predictions: shorturl.at/dotC3
As I often say, we're all walking around in our own subjective realities. The best we can do is pick a reality that predicts better than others. Let's see if I predicted the comment reaction correctly.
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