Warning: No 10 will undoubtedly spin in advance that Sue Gray’s report clears Boris Johnson and blames civil servants to frame the report as Johnson’s get out of jail free card. This will be untrue.
2. Her job is to establish the facts not to make a judgment on Johnson’s behavior.TOR: establish swiftly a general understanding of the nature of the gatherings, including attendance, the setting and the purpose, with reference to adherence to the guidance in place at the time.
3.The report will be unique in that such reports are usually on the behavior of other ministers and the PM takes the decision on what to do. He can hardly take a judgement on what to do about himself.
4.Spin should be ignored. Read the facts in the report in full before making a judgment. And then the only judges about what should happen to Johnson are the public and Tory MPs.
5. Lastly I was in No 10 for ten years and we didn’t have as many staff parties in a decade as they appear to have had in a few months. When on earth did they find time to do any work?
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In 2019 I wrote that Boris Johnson had done more for a United Ireland than the IRA ever did. Ashcroft’s startling poll of NI voters proves this assessment was more accurate than I could have guessed.🧵
22% of voters have shifted in the direction of a United Ireland as a result of Brexit
Nearly 50% think Brexit has made a United Ireland much more likely and another 18% slightly more likely
1/7 Every time a Tory minister appears on the media they have a different explanation of why they are breaking international law on the NI protocol. So far I have counted 5. This thread lists them and suggests what the real reason may be.
2/7 Gov: ‘These are specific and limited changes required by the ambiguity of the original agreement’.
No they are not - they potentially undermine the whole point of the backstop.
3/7 Gov: ‘They are to save the Good Friday Agreement’.
On the contrary they undermine the GFA by risking the need to impose a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic to protect the Single Market.
1/Post debate it is now obvious this election is not going to ignite. If the campaign feels depressing and dull that is because it is meant to. The Tories aim is to depress the vote and win on differential turnout.
2/There was always going to be a lower turn out in a December election than in a traditional summer one. But by running a defensive and vacuous campaign Johnson has ensured that most people turned off and tuned out. The majority can’t remember a thing that has been said.
3/He has been abetted by Labour and LibDems who have failed to inspire voters. That’s why there are a record number of undecideds and ‘won’t vote’ holds a majority over sitting MPs in 551 seats. There is no national party anyone can positively vote for in good conscience.
1/To illustrate the hidden trick in Boris Johnson’s ‘compromise proposal’, a brief explanation of power sharing in Northern Ireland...
2/The GFA established a power sharing mechanism so that all major decisions have to be taken by cross community agreement, so both the DUP and SF have a veto on change in NI. That means everything depends on how the question is put and it can be skewed in favour of one side.
3/ If, after four years, the question is do you want NI’s membership of the Single Market to continue, then the DUP can say no. If however the question is do you want to change the status quo by leaving the single market, then SF can say no. Johnson has proposed the former.