2 of these things are not like the others
(also a lesson in small data!)
The data are president-day pairs, so actually quite large from a raw n perspective -- the problem is that we have a limited data set to capture changing voter psychology (we have ~2.5 presidential terms of high partisanship)
Anyway, this is from a model I put together for this piece, which you should read! (economist.com/united-states/…)

I have a fuller model that also accounts for partisanship and tenure in office, which I'm writing about tomorrow in economist.com/newsletters/ch…

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More from @gelliottmorris

6 Jan
the biden supporter version of january 6 is nancy pelosi kneeling while the cast of hamilton, sitting on the barrier of the gallery, yell-sings “history has its eyes on you” at kevin mccarthy
hamilton is an enjoyable musical
Read 4 tweets
16 Dec 21
Here is my piece on our YouGov/Economist data showing a huge dropoff in support for Biden among young people. The decrease really is quite stunning: -50 points on net approval since January 26th (our first survey of his presidency).

The precise reason for the decline is hard to nail down. It's most likely that there's a confluence of factors that make Biden appear as not progressive enough for young adults (which is probably true?) that have driven down their views of him as the contrast vs Trump wanes
I do think the covid explanation is wrong.
For one thing, Biden's approval on how he's handling covid is higher than for any other issue.
But it also doesn't explain why young people, who are less impacted by covid, would be more affected attitudinally.

Read 4 tweets
8 Dec 21
This is a good piece from @Edsall & scholars that overlaps with a lot of what I've been thinking about re: US institutions over the last yr. Should remind us of how much democracy has progressed internationally since 1787, and how little we've done at home
As far as contemporary debates go, I think scholars are right to point out that anti-democratic institutions do much more harm to Liberal progress, the will of the majority, and the Dem Party than messaging squabbles do — even tho activists can only really influence the latter.
I do think, by the way, that the question of whether "LatinX" and "Defund" hurt Democratic candidates (by association) would be a much lesser, though not non-existent, issue in the party if the Ds didn't have to win 53%+ of voters to have a governing majority, like they do now.
Read 4 tweets
8 Dec 21
I have been running some models on our YouGov/Economist data today looking into whether voters' attitudes on inflation are being driven by partisanship and, esp, Fox News, as many in the media (and especially on Twitter) are theorizing.

Some findings in this thread ⬇️
The groups most likely to say gas has gotten 'much more' expensive (v 'a little more' or not at all) are:

a) Republicans
b) Ppl 45-64
c) Ppl who watch a lot of news, but not necessarily Fox (Fox had a lower impact on attitudes than eg CNN, actually)
d) Ppl who make <50K
Groups that are LEAST likely to say gas has gotten much more expensive:

a) Democrats
b) Ppl under 30
c) Ppl who don't watch a lot of news
d) Ppl who watch MSNBC
Read 6 tweets
30 Nov 21
Ranked-choice voting: good
Abolishing primaries: bad
Re: party primaries

This is one of those things that makes sense at first but falls apart after the slightest of scrutiny. We had primaries before we had polarization, and polarization has worsened as the modern primary system has mostly stayed constant. 1/2
2/2 I do think primaries *sustain* some amount of polarization, but they didn’t cause it. We have polarization bc leaders & voters moved to the poles (esp on the right). We need 2 give pols incentives to move to the center, and complete democratization probably isn’t the solution
Read 5 tweets
29 Nov 21
One thing I think most politics reporters and commentators have yet to internalize is that polarization inherently means the days of presidents hitting 55% approval months into office are probably long gone, and 60% might never happen again (under normal political conditions)
Biden is unpopular (compared to past presidents) in part because of his own personal failings, in part because of his party’s political failings, but also (and this is a big one that gets left out!) because the structures of our politics have changed massively since even the 90s
I guess the final point here is that bc elections are closer now than they used to be, and bc there are more safe seats, a 50% approval still buys parties a lot — maybe as much as a 55% approval used to. But a 40% approval can also be as bad as a 30-35% one from the ~70s.
Read 4 tweets

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