Thread by @gelliottmorris

One thing I think most politics reporters and commentators have yet to internalize is that polarization inherently means the days of presidents hitting 55% approval months into office are probably long gone, and 60% might never happen again (under normal political conditions)

https://twitter.com/brendannyhan/status/1465331991742750722

Biden is unpopular (compared to past presidents) in part because of his own personal failings, in part because of his party’s political failings, but also (and this is a big one that gets left out!) because the structures of our politics have changed massively since even the 90s

I guess the final point here is that bc elections are closer now than they used to be, and bc there are more safe seats, a 50% approval still buys parties a lot — maybe as much as a 55% approval used to. But a 40% approval can also be as bad as a 30-35% one from the ~70s.

Maybe a better way to say this is: The days of massive presidential landslides and 80-seat House majorities are over, but within that narrow window of outcomes we still have, a small swing in approval probably generates a larger swing in outcomes than it would have 50 yrs ago.