Not to pick on this, but this is just based on misinformation and bad risk analysis. The hospitalization rate for vaccinated adults isn't anywhere near 1%. Even under Delta, it was 3.9 out of 100K cases or .0039%.
If Omicron is even 25% milder, you're down to under 3 per 100K. Mask is going to do little to slow down the spread among vaccinated. Even if cases are 2-3X (probably) w Omicron, that's not driving hospitalizations except for people taking up waiting rooms demanding to be tested.
The hospitalizations with this Omicron peak once you remove the large increase in incidental hospitalizations are not exceeding what they were during last winter's Delta-peak. Vaccinated people wearing masks might make some people feel better, but not going to help hospitals.
That doesn't mean you can't do it if you want to. I don't care if someone wants to wear 4 seatbelts. But we have to stop pretending it's a necessary health measure. Esp when people most likely to end up in the hospital are least likely to be taking other protective measures.
I just really think people have a really bad perception of how likely you are to wind up in the hospital for Covid-19 if you are under 65 and vaccinated. And also how much mask-wearing can reduce the spread at this point (not a lot).
And it's not even their fault!
If you don't look at the data and just rely on media headlines about hospitals and cases exploding, there is no way someone could possibly get an accurate perception of the risk. Or the benefits of wearing a mask at this point.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Weird for a NYT writer to reference “the truth of the matter” and then just invent a fact. The substance also isn’t comparable. And lastly, even more embarrassing for this reference, that vote required 2/3 majorities and got it.
In fact, the House originally failed to pass it because they couldn’t get to the 2/3rds threshold.
About a month ago, Imperial College's Neil Ferguson (also known as Professor Lockdown) projected UK would reach 5K deaths per day in this wave without major restrictions.
The UK tested that theory. Cases have peaked and are crashing. Current 7 day-average of deaths is 246.
At the time, the media also extensively spread claims from Ferguson's team that there is no evidence that Omicron was milder than Delta. That was indisputably wrong.
The point is that it's about time we start holding people who want to influence public policy accountable for the inputs based on which they make their recommendations. The UK has based a lot of policy on projections and recommendations made by that team. That should stop.
A lot of the vaccine-skeptics don't have any skepticism for the people they get information from. Ex: A common reply I get re Vax efficacy is that they know people who have gotten vaccinated and then gotten Covid-19. Clearly true and proves vax have less than 100% efficacy. (1/)
But they don't apply same logic to claims by people they are taking info from. Ex: A central claim from Dr. Peter McCullough, one of the most prominent anti-vax people, is actually getting Covid-19 gives you permanent immunity.
Here he is saying it on Rogan's podcast recently:
But we know there are tens of thousands of people right now getting re-infected. I personally know 2 people that have had Covid-19 3 times. He's claiming 100% efficacy for natural illness. Easily checkable, but no one holds him to that claim.
Problem here is that Berenson relies on people being easily manipulated/bad at math.
Ex of how this works: If there are 400 vaccinated adults and 100 unvaccinated and 20% get exposed to Covid-19. If vaccines are 50% effective, 40 vaccinated and 20 unvaccinated get Covid-19.
Berenson will then say "See? twice as many people that are vaccinated got Covid!. Vaccines actually hurt you" when truth is that data shows you're half as likely to get Covid-19 with the vaccines.
Obviously wrong but bc people are frustrated w 0-Covid side, they buy into it.
I remember this. DeSantis put what was right above the polls while the press and partisans created an entire science-free hysteria campaign to suggest opening schools was dangerous.
He then overcame a lawsuit from the unions. He was indisputably right, and they were all wrong.
It was a defining moment during the pandemic. It also put pressure on a lot of other states/the feds to do the right thing with schools. It became much harder to argue it was dangerous to open schools when Florida did it successfully and the kids there benefitted enormously.
At some point, someone will have to go back and find the articles from then about how "experts" warn a wave of infections and deaths is coming if Florida reopens schools. And how DeSantis was ignoring the (selective) experts and prioritizing politics over safety.
Same pattern every week. It's exhausting. Local Democrats, especially Nikki Fried, spread false or misleading stories about DeSantis. National media picks it up with the same partisan framing. It gets debunked and they move on to the next one.
In this case, FL stocked up on a lot of tests during the summer surge. After that surge, demand went way down. These tests expired in Sept. When they expire, FL has to seek a waiver to still use them. They did so and got one until Dec. Many still remained as this.... (1/2)
surge started hitting. So they now have asked for the waiver once again. They were following protocols for tests that have been around for some time, but Fried deceptively made it seem like they just expired and can't be used. Media eagerly parrots again.