How Did (Almost) Everybody Get Inflation So Wrong?…

- Biden admin: wrong
- Most economists: wrong
- Investors: wrong
- Bank analysts: wrong
- Biden critics: wrong (missed the boom)
- Bitcoin bros: wrong (beat by equities post-3/21)

Everybody was wrong!
In today's ep, @awealthofcs and @michaelbatnick join to talk about why '21 boomflation—a roaring economy plus 40-yr high price growth—was the story ~nobody saw coming.…

Most inflation-watchers missed the boom; most boom-predictors whiffed on inflation.
Today's ep is partly inspired by @jasonfurman, who (along with @ModeledBehavior) not only got 2021 about as right as anybody I spoke too, but also has written cogently about how and why just about everybody missed the dynamics underlying inflation

"Larry Summers called it"

He called ... some of it! Read @JHWeissmann, who wrote the definitive piece on why it's not entirely accurate to say that Larry Summers nailed the inflation call…

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More from @DKThomp

12 Jan
This is one of the most important articles I'll write all year—and the most complete framework for how I'm thinking about progress, public policy, and a better future for all Americans:

America needs an "abundance agenda"…
Think about how often scarcity has been the story of the pandemic:

- First, we were told to not wear masks, bc there weren't enough.
- Then we were told to not get booster shots, bc there weren't enough.
- Now some ppl are worried about hoarding tests, bc there aren't enough.
Now think about how supply side snafus have also become a major storyline in the economy

- We didn't invest in port technology, and now we have a supply bottleneck at the ports
- We watched legal immigration collapse for years, and now we have a labor shortage
Read 7 tweets
11 Jan
NEW POD: The world of Omicron facts with data wizard @jburnmurdoch…

Four big ideas from the global evidence:
1. It's milder (different than "mild").
2. It's fast.
3. It's a big problem for the unvaccinated + hospital systems.
4. It's worse in the US.
1. It's milder (different than "mild")

The virus's upper-respiratory replication combined with immunity from vaccines and natural infection seem to be responsible for the global evidence of a divergence between case growth and deaths.…
2. It's fast.

In Gauteng, Omicron wave trough-to-peak was about 3x faster than Delta. In London, NY, and DC, case growth is peaking much faster than previous waves.

As @jburnmurdoch says: Hard to be certain how much of this is the virus vs behavior shifts.
Read 6 tweets
10 Jan
Vaccinated America has for months been splintering into two big camps: "We still need widespread COVID precautions" vs. "We just need to move on."

Omicron has deepened that divide.

So I wrote about the rise of the "Vaxxed and Done."…
This is my best effort at summarizing the views of the "Vaxxed and Done."…
This is my best effort at summarizing the opposition to the "Vaxxed and Done" philosophy.
Read 5 tweets
9 Jan
An argument I see a lot on here: ~Web3's problems are the same ones email and mobile Internet had, which means Web3 *is* the next mobile Internet!~

No. Just bc two things share the same failures doesn't mean they'll follow the same success path.

It's "analogy by failure."
"Analogy by failure" in Web3 debates doesn't prove Web3 will fail. It doesn't prove anything. It's just a fallacy.

If I tape dung to a cup and say it's a radio, that's a failure too. I can say "you idiots, email also failed once" but that doesn't change that it's cup-dung.
It's really the proving too much fallacy, but I've found pitiful engagement on citations of PTM, and I think we should just rename it for the Internet something more intuitive, since "My thing is failing in all most auspicious ways" is the way this argument typically appears.
Read 4 tweets
7 Jan
What's the most incredible, statistical-outlier accomplishment in U.S. major sports history?
My two nominations:

1) Wilt Chamberlain's 1961-2 season.

He averaged 50 points/game and 40 shots. Those aren't just records. They're both THIRTY PERCENT HIGHER than the all-time no. 2! (via @billbarnwell)
2) Wayne Gretzky has 700 more career assists (or 57% more) than the no. 2 assists leader. What!?…

For reference: That would be like home-run leader Barry Bonds finishing his career with 1,200 HRs. He has 762.
Read 7 tweets
7 Jan
New pod on the most important sci-tech innovation in the world, with the great @elidourado!…

- supersonic travel
- carbon removal
- SpaceX's big fat cheap rocket
- the first cancer vaccines
- flying cars
- unraveling the mystery of proteins!
🔥🔥@elidourado on progress and the pandemic:
💉💉@elidourado on how mRNA technology and synthetic protein design could come together to provide a one-two punch against cancer
Read 6 tweets

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