1/It looks like Russia is systematically eliminating options that would allow them to avoid conflict, and instead is moving in the other direction. Getting signals from multiple sources. Here's some of what I'm hearing.
2/Ukraine has suffered a major cyberattack, apparently by Russia. This would likely immediately precede any hot conflict, in order to weaken the government, stoke fear, and alarm the population. While some suggest this is all sabre-rattling to "extract concessions" it is...
3/unclear what sort of concessions are plausible. Talks have not produced viable proposals. I am hearing reports of what sounds like Russian activity in Berlin. Past experience with Russian involvement in western affairs suggests this would be an expected part of hybrid warfare.
4/One analyst suggests that Russia would be inclined to pick a 3-day holiday weekend in the US to make its moves, as our government is operating at reduced capacity. Also, financial markets will be closed Monday and may help shield a "shock," thus normalizing any aggression.
5/Putin's position domestically is increasingly precarious. Dealing with dissent, an unstable situation in Kazakhstan, and competing internal factions, the idea of an invasion is also not very popular domestically. Czech analysts in fact suggest Russia's domestic messaging...
6/is downplaying the possibility of invasion. It's unclear if that is signal or noise, however, designed to shape domestic popular opinion regardless of what they actually do. I think probably the latter. Perhaps most indicative of intent is the centrality of Alexander Dugin...
7/in the Kremlin's messaging. Long considered something of a nut, his brand of mystic 'Eurasianism' seems to have fully captured Putin's imagination; central to that is the reunification and restoration of the 'Rus' people, which is the basis for the invasion of Ukraine.
8/Given the affectation with Dugin, the spiritual bent of Dugin's philosophy and the scale of its ambitions, it seems we are no longer dealing with a cold-hearted rationalist, as Putin has long presented himself, but something of a desperate strong man who is out of moves...
9/and looking towards 'mystic destiny' to guide him to victory. This is never a good quality in an opponent with a lot of firepower and will. We should thus see this situation for exactly what it is, and neither over-react nor under-react. Russia is behaving dangerously, and...
10/we should probably find ways to complicate that, distract and make things more difficult and costly for them. It's unclear that any amount of negotiation can be effective against mystic zealotry. Also Americans and Europeans should be reminded that this isn't just another...
11/someplace-else "forever war" that we can "send troops to," or not. This is going to involve all of us, at home, with fifth columns activated and all sorts of unpleasantness. If there is a strategy to avoid this by foiling Putin's plans, we should aim to deploy it immediately.
12/Additionally, it looks like Russia has engaged in a false-flag information operation as a pretext to justify its aggression. White House @PressSec just confirmed this.
13/For those looking to gain a glimpse into Dugin's mindset, this piece of mine from five years ago relays his essay, "The Swamp and the Fire" from his Katehon blog. It's highly relevant.

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More from @davetroy

9 Jan
1/The rise of cryptocurrencies and the attacks on democracy are a single phenomenon. They are both attempts to advance a libertarian, individualist worldview. Of the “Austrian school” economists, Hans-Hermann Hoppe may be the most relevant right now.

2/He believes democracy is a failed experiment, and that monarchy is preferable.

Better still is “natural law” and “anarchocapitalism.” This philosophy unites oil barons (Kochs), oligarchs, and anti-vaxxers; it is the basis for Bannon and Thiel’s anti-democracy views.
3/This is the same “natural law” that underlies insane anti-vax cult groups like the “International Tribunal for Natural Justice.” A toxic mix of intelligence operations and cults aiming to end government entirely, and establish a “natural” order. 😬
Read 19 tweets
7 Jan
1/The concept of “folk politics” is a useful one for describing why the left has become ossified and reactionary against the right, and why the right has the upper hand in establishing the Overton window.

2/I don’t know that I agree with the entire agenda here, but I do think we need to ground ourselves in first principles, with a firm and unwavering commitment to rule by the demos, and a firm and forceful rejection of libertarian anarchism and its neofeudal aims.
3/Also worth noting that “Marxism” is super dumb and has produced some of the world’s greatest atrocities. Why? Because of how humans behave in groups. No one bothered to consult a sociologist or study the effects of in-group/out-group conflict.
Read 13 tweets
7 Jan
Ask Mo about Space Command and how his buddy Trump “single-handedly” moved it to Brooks’ district.
And ask about why Brooks made the announcement prematurely, exactly one week after January 6. Press release, January 13, 2021. @January6thCmte

Read 4 tweets
4 Jan
1/January 6 was a product of multiple factions operating at multiple layers. Any analyst saying it was just 'one' thing is missing the forest for the trees. Here are a few of these layers.
2/Christian nationalists, yes. Represented in groups like Council for National Policy. Right wing paramilitary extremists (Oathkeepers, Three Percenters, 1AP). Constitutional Sheriffs. Goldbugs. Anti-CCP (Epoch Times/Guo/Moonies). QAnon cultists. Catholic Trads (Viganò faction).
3/Underlying all of this are broad coalitions of raw power: oil/gas interests, crypto/gold vs. fiat, NATO/EU vs. Eurasianism (Dugin). These coalitions go back decades into longstanding international fascist and criminal networks competing with liberal democracies for primacy.
Read 6 tweets
3 Jan
1/There are people who are genuinely trying to talk intelligently about cryptocurrencies, but can’t because they don’t have historical background. This thread tries to correct that by suggesting required reading. First, it’s necessary to know what problem it attempts to solve.
2/Bitcoin is designed to be “sound money.” It can’t be controlled by government. What’s mine is mine, what’s yours is yours, and can’t be “diluted” by shadowy “central bankers,” lurking in their urban apartments, smoking cigars — or worse, eating lox bagels.
3/This has been an obsession of a certain kind of person for over 100 years. Protocols of the Elders of Zion (1903) was an early propaganda piece out of Russia, later amplified by Henry Ford.

Read 27 tweets
31 Dec 21
The reason CDC changed the quarantine guidelines has more to do with trying to prevent cascading societal breakdowns than corporate expedience. A 10 day quarantine will cripple essential services. Do that math. A tidal wave is coming, global + US peak Jan 29.
What’s coming next is nothing like what’s come before. And it’s not about the severity of sickness (and that is not yet actually fully known) but rather everyone getting sick *all at once* and disrupting services and society further. Be careful, be kind, and brace yourself.
This may also coincide with geopolitical instability. Get what you need now, calmly and without drama. Get out of the way of people trying to serve in essential roles through this, under impossible circumstances. They deserve our full respect and support.
Read 4 tweets

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