1/It looks like Russia is systematically eliminating options that would allow them to avoid conflict, and instead is moving in the other direction. Getting signals from multiple sources. Here's some of what I'm hearing.
2/Ukraine has suffered a major cyberattack, apparently by Russia. This would likely immediately precede any hot conflict, in order to weaken the government, stoke fear, and alarm the population. While some suggest this is all sabre-rattling to "extract concessions" it is...
3/unclear what sort of concessions are plausible. Talks have not produced viable proposals. I am hearing reports of what sounds like Russian activity in Berlin. Past experience with Russian involvement in western affairs suggests this would be an expected part of hybrid warfare.
4/One analyst suggests that Russia would be inclined to pick a 3-day holiday weekend in the US to make its moves, as our government is operating at reduced capacity. Also, financial markets will be closed Monday and may help shield a "shock," thus normalizing any aggression.
5/Putin's position domestically is increasingly precarious. Dealing with dissent, an unstable situation in Kazakhstan, and competing internal factions, the idea of an invasion is also not very popular domestically. Czech analysts in fact suggest Russia's domestic messaging...
6/is downplaying the possibility of invasion. It's unclear if that is signal or noise, however, designed to shape domestic popular opinion regardless of what they actually do. I think probably the latter. Perhaps most indicative of intent is the centrality of Alexander Dugin...
7/in the Kremlin's messaging. Long considered something of a nut, his brand of mystic 'Eurasianism' seems to have fully captured Putin's imagination; central to that is the reunification and restoration of the 'Rus' people, which is the basis for the invasion of Ukraine.
8/Given the affectation with Dugin, the spiritual bent of Dugin's philosophy and the scale of its ambitions, it seems we are no longer dealing with a cold-hearted rationalist, as Putin has long presented himself, but something of a desperate strong man who is out of moves...
9/and looking towards 'mystic destiny' to guide him to victory. This is never a good quality in an opponent with a lot of firepower and will. We should thus see this situation for exactly what it is, and neither over-react nor under-react. Russia is behaving dangerously, and...
10/we should probably find ways to complicate that, distract and make things more difficult and costly for them. It's unclear that any amount of negotiation can be effective against mystic zealotry. Also Americans and Europeans should be reminded that this isn't just another...
11/someplace-else "forever war" that we can "send troops to," or not. This is going to involve all of us, at home, with fifth columns activated and all sorts of unpleasantness. If there is a strategy to avoid this by foiling Putin's plans, we should aim to deploy it immediately.
12/Additionally, it looks like Russia has engaged in a false-flag information operation as a pretext to justify its aggression. White House @PressSec just confirmed this.
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1481955974642651138?s=20
13/For those looking to gain a glimpse into Dugin's mindset, this piece of mine from five years ago relays his essay, "The Swamp and the Fire" from his Katehon blog. It's highly relevant.
davetroy.medium.com/the-swamp-and-…
davetroy.medium.com/the-swamp-and-…
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