Thread by @RuminatorDan

"Official mortality data for England suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status &uncertain effectiveness of C19 vaccination"
Our paper now includes the 'healthy vaccinee' effect, which we find does not explain the non-Covid mortality anomalies.
dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.…

Logically, whether the healthy vaccinee hypothesis is incorrect or correct, the implications are the same: Something is causing significant anomalies in the data. Claims made on the basis of those data are therefore highly questionable.

Dramatic increases in non-Covid mortality are observed in the unvaccinated population following dose 1 rollout & in dose 1 recipients following dose 2 rollout.
In plain English, the mortality of people who are not vaccinated appears to increase when other people are vaccinated.

Although the idea might sound preposterous, there are phenomena that can cause this mathematical effect.
Given the claims of large reductions in deaths made on the basis of such data, it is important to attempt to understand as much as possible of what is - & isn't - going on.

An explanation offered by many recently is the "healthy vaccinee" effect. This suggests that healthy people are likely to be vaccinated, whereas those in very poor health are unlikely to be vaccinated.

If healthy people are removed from a group, while unhealthy people are not, then the disproportionately large number of unhealthy people remaining in that group will pull down its average health & increase its mortality.

The UK's ONS, in a Dec 2021 release [2], provided data on the % of people in each vaccination category who were classed as being in "very poor health", for ages 70-79, monthly from Jan - Oct 2021.

If the healthy vaccinee hypothesis is correct, one would expect to see an increase in the % of people in very poor health in the unvaccinated group around the time of dose 1 rollout, No increase is seen. Yet the mortality rate of this group appears to spike sharply.

In fact, of all the vaccination categories, the unvaccinated group consistently contains the lowest % of very poor health people. This certainly does not suggest that those in very poor health were not vaccinated. If anything is suggests that they were prioritised.

Prioritisation would be in keeping with rollout guidelines. As the ONS state [2], "...the vaccination roll-out was also prioritised by health status of individuals, with the extremely clinically vulnerable and those with underlying health conditions being vaccinated earlier..."

At the time of dose 2 rollout, an increase in % of people in very poor health is seen in dose 1 recipients. However, it is far smaller than the increase in mortality observed in that group.

The hypothesis can also be explored theoretically. Our paper describes a model which, we believe, indicates by dint of its highly unrealistic requirements that the "healthy vaccinee" hypothesis is an unlikely explanation for the strange effects seen in the mortality data.

If the healthy vaccinee hypothesis is incorrect & other phenomena are responsible for the anomalies observed in the mortality data, then one must surely question claims made on the basis of those data.

Ironically, even if the healthy vaccinee hypothesis was correct, the implication would be much the same, since claims of effectiveness made on the basis of comparing groups with greatly differing health profiles would be highly questionable, if not entirely invalid.

Refs/Links:
[1] "Official mortality data for England suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status&uncertain effectiveness of C19 vaccination"
The figures (graphs) shown above are copied from the paper.
researchgate.net/publication/35…

Refs/Links cont'd.:
[2] Deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status, England: deaths occurring between 1 January and 31 October 2021 - Office for National Statistics, UK
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…