"Official mortality data for England suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status &uncertain effectiveness of C19 vaccination"
Our paper now includes the 'healthy vaccinee' effect, which we find does not explain the non-Covid mortality anomalies.
Logically, whether the healthy vaccinee hypothesis is incorrect or correct, the implications are the same: Something is causing significant anomalies in the data. Claims made on the basis of those data are therefore highly questionable.
Dramatic increases in non-Covid mortality are observed in the unvaccinated population following dose 1 rollout & in dose 1 recipients following dose 2 rollout.
In plain English, the mortality of people who are not vaccinated appears to increase when other people are vaccinated.
Although the idea might sound preposterous, there are phenomena that can cause this mathematical effect.
Given the claims of large reductions in deaths made on the basis of such data, it is important to attempt to understand as much as possible of what is - & isn't - going on.
An explanation offered by many recently is the "healthy vaccinee" effect. This suggests that healthy people are likely to be vaccinated, whereas those in very poor health are unlikely to be vaccinated.
If healthy people are removed from a group, while unhealthy people are not, then the disproportionately large number of unhealthy people remaining in that group will pull down its average health & increase its mortality.
The UK's ONS, in a Dec 2021 release [2], provided data on the % of people in each vaccination category who were classed as being in "very poor health", for ages 70-79, monthly from Jan - Oct 2021.
If the healthy vaccinee hypothesis is correct, one would expect to see an increase in the % of people in very poor health in the unvaccinated group around the time of dose 1 rollout, No increase is seen. Yet the mortality rate of this group appears to spike sharply.
In fact, of all the vaccination categories, the unvaccinated group consistently contains the lowest % of very poor health people. This certainly does not suggest that those in very poor health were not vaccinated. If anything is suggests that they were prioritised.
Prioritisation would be in keeping with rollout guidelines. As the ONS state [2], "...the vaccination roll-out was also prioritised by health status of individuals, with the extremely clinically vulnerable and those with underlying health conditions being vaccinated earlier..."
At the time of dose 2 rollout, an increase in % of people in very poor health is seen in dose 1 recipients. However, it is far smaller than the increase in mortality observed in that group.
The hypothesis can also be explored theoretically. Our paper describes a model which, we believe, indicates by dint of its highly unrealistic requirements that the "healthy vaccinee" hypothesis is an unlikely explanation for the strange effects seen in the mortality data.
If the healthy vaccinee hypothesis is incorrect & other phenomena are responsible for the anomalies observed in the mortality data, then one must surely question claims made on the basis of those data.
Ironically, even if the healthy vaccinee hypothesis was correct, the implication would be much the same, since claims of effectiveness made on the basis of comparing groups with greatly differing health profiles would be highly questionable, if not entirely invalid.
[1] "Official mortality data for England suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status&uncertain effectiveness of C19 vaccination"
The figures (graphs) shown above are copied from the paper.
Refs/Links cont'd.:
[2] Deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status, England: deaths occurring between 1 January and 31 October 2021 - Office for National Statistics, UK

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More from @RuminatorDan

15 Oct 21
NSW Australia "Rules for people who are not fully vaccinated" 15 October 2021
"If you are over the age of 16 years and are not fully vaccinated you cannot visit another person’s place of residence, except in limited circumstances."
"If you are not fully vaccinated you cannot visit a gym or indoor recreation facility."
"If you are not fully vaccinated you cannot visit a recreation facility."
Read 14 tweets
21 Sep 21
__ONS England & Wales Covid Deaths by Age as % of total Covid deaths, from Jan 2020 to 10 September 2021__

Stacked in this way, only older age groups are visible. This is because the vast majority of Covid deaths occurred in older people.
59% were aged 80+
93% were aged 60+
Zooming in 10x, the chart now shows age groups which, in total, account for ~10% of all Covid deaths. (Older groups have been greyed out for clarity.)
4.3% of deaths were in people aged under 55.
1.3% were in people under 45 years old.
At 100x zoom, the visible age groups, combined, make up only ~1% of total covid deaths.
0.74% of deaths were in people aged under 40.
0.19% were in people under 30 years old.
Read 5 tweets
13 Sep 21
Israel Minister of Health explains to Minister of the Interior that the green pass in some places is required only so as to put pressure on the unvaccinated to get vaccinated.
(clip: Israel Channel 12)
English translation in thread below.
HER: I suspect that for outdoor restaurants you can remove the green pass.
HIM: I'll tell you, in swimming pools and also restaurants. Epidemiologically it's correct.
HER: Correct.
HIM: The issue is - and I'm telling it to you - our problem is people who don't get vaccinated. We need a bit so that they...
HER: To put pressure on them.
HIM: Otherwise... We won't get out of this.
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep 21
Whilst it might not suit the narrative and seems to have annoyed people, @Peston is correct in his observation. The data to which be is referring suggest very poor effectiveness against infection.
This is far from the first such evidence (e.g. Israel).
Mr Peston can hardly be accused of having been critical of the narrative thus far, which surely means that the fact that he is questioning the data now is worth listening to.
Poor protection against infection invalidates any logical reason for vaccinating children, for passports, for the health apartheid being shamefully stoked by many leaders, and more.
(Not that there aren't also other equally valid reasons why all those things are very wrong.)
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep 21
Dictatorship... Democracy...
What's all the fuss about? They both start with a D so surely that makes them nearly the same thing?

Covid and Climate start with the same letter and they're the same thing too. Image
On the democracy vs dictatorship matter...
Read 4 tweets
5 Sep 21
__Israel, daily Child (ages 0-19) & Adult (ages 20+) Vaccinations & 1) New Cases, 2) Hospitalisations, 3) Deaths__

1) Israel, daily Child (ages 0-19) & Adult (ages 20+) Vaccinations & New Covid Cases (all ages),
20 Dec 2020 - 31 Aug 2021
1/ Image
2) Israel, daily Child (ages 0-19) & Adult (ages 20+) Vaccinations & Covid Hospitalisations (all ages),
20 Dec 2020 - 31 Aug 2021
2/ Image
3) Israel, daily Child (ages 0-19) & Adult (ages 20+) Vaccinations & New Covid Deaths (all ages),
20 Dec 2020 - 31 Aug 2021
3/ Image
Read 4 tweets

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