🧵A few thoughts on this column by @asymmetricinfo on trans athletes . . . To start, I 100% agree with her central point on questions surrounding trans athletes:
"will have to be asked and answered — out loud, where everyone can hear it"

So let's discuss . . .
Issues surrounding trans athletes in sport typically find their way onto the pages of the Wash Post & similar when a trans athlete makes news for some reason, typically athletic success

I get how the media works

But unique cases typically make for bad policy discussions
The world of sport governance is complex and regulations surrounding trans athlete participation will necessarily differ based on setting and sport

There is not going to be a single "answer" to the issue, even for elite sport

Complex? Yes, buckle up
"First question, then: Do trans-female athletes really have an advantage?"

An incomplete Q

Our recent short review concluded that "advantage" is necessarily sport specific & in varying degree

Equestrian? No
Boxing? Sure
Women's gymnastics? Probably not
"But with even a small percentage of elite athletes transitioning after puberty, trans women could conceivably dominate many women’s sports to the point of unavoidable controversy"

I see claims like this all the time, never any evidence or numbers (except from @KirstiMiller30)
But for argument sake, let's say that a lot of excellent male athletes transition and then as women start dominating women's sport

A regulatory approach here would be to implement a "cap-tie" rule (which IMO makes sense anyway)
"we didn’t create separate leagues to reinforce the special feminine identity of female athletes; if anything, women’s athletics was supposed to break down such divisions. The separation is a nod to biology"

Only indirectly . . .
Most of modern sport was invented a century+ ago to celebrate masculinity & to exclude women

Sure biology is there

But we have women's categories in sport not merely because of biology but because women fought for the right to participate 100+ yrs ago
The main sports we have (though this is slowly changing) were invented to feature male athleticism (American football the most obvious)

But we can imagine sports that feature female athleticism (women's gymnastics obviously)

See this thread for more:
"we’ll need to settle whether we still think it’s important for cisgender women to have a place where at least a few of us can experience the thrill of victory"

How many Olympic medal have been awarded to trans athletes since trans inclusion first allowed? How many NCAA titles?
Finally the recent IOC Framework is an excellent starting for for thinking abt and discussing regulations for trans athletes

At the level of Olympic sport at least, it appears that the idea of outright ban or anything goes have been superseded by inclusive pragmatism - Good
PS. Here is a link to the IOC Framework:

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Roger Pielke Jr.

Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RogerPielkeJr

13 Jan
A follow up to Fishy Science

Last month I wrote about the retraction of a paper and its implications for the Biden Administration

Today, the OSTP commented on the issue ...


A well-regarded scientist, now a senior official at OSTP, violated PNAS peer review procedures as an editor so egregiously that it led to the paper she oversaw being retracted

The official is also leading the Biden Admin Science Integrity Task Force

Not a great look...
Today, @axios reports the following about the retraction and the officials role on the Science Integrity Task Force

My thoughts on this response follow . . .
Read 9 tweets
13 Jan
Interesting detail in Supreme Court ruling striking down the Biden Administration's vaccine mandate for employers . . .
The majority argue that Congress never gave OSHA authority to regulate public health in workplaces

A reaction might be for the Biden Admin to propose new legislation granting OSHA that authority

After all, Ds control House and Senate

But . . .
There is no chance of legislation passing that would expand OSHA regulatory authority

How do we know this?

The Senate voted last month to express disapproval of the OSHA vaccine mandate

It was party-line, except for two
Tester (D-MT)
Manchin (D-WV)

Supreme Court cites this
Read 4 tweets
12 Jan
Quiet, uncritical, obedient: how the UK’s scientists failed the pandemic test
Throughout the pandemic, senior advisers and institutions have failed to challenge a post-truth government.
🔥 from @jameswilsdon
The core of the issue lies here, in a conflation of "science advice" (whatever that is) vs. policy or political advice
via @philipcball
Read 4 tweets
11 Jan
🧵Some quick comments on the @WHOSTP science integrity report released today (just in time for my first grad seminar meeting of the semester, so thanks for that!) . . .
1⃣ The report does not define "scientific integrity" -- which is a problem because you cannot regulate that which is undefined ... and Potter Stewart imprecision won't do ... the report does say that future work of the Task Force will come up with a definition Image
2⃣ Notably missing is any discussion of congressional scientific integrity legislation, notable legislation introduced by @PaulTonko w/ 140+ bipartisan co-sponsors

Reason is likely that Biden Admin doesn't want to cede any oversight power to Congress Image
Read 6 tweets
10 Jan
@MunichRe today published their estimates for natural disaster losses in 2021, allowing me to update the time series of global disaster losses as a proportion of global GDP

This thread reports and discusses this update

TL;DR --> Figure below
Munich Re reports ~$270B in total weather and climate disasters losses for 2021, which is 0.28% global GDP

Previous 4 years:

2020= $194B, 0.23%
2019= $151B, 0.17%
2018= $150B, 0.18%
2017= $329B, 0.41%

Median= 0.21%
Average= 0.23%
Munich Re reports US saw ~$145B of the total global losses (~54% of weather/climate losses)

According to FEMA, in 2021 the US should have expected $141B in weather/climate disaster losses

In principle, US & global losses are in line with expectations

Read 8 tweets
7 Jan
"Spotting is an influential form of wildfire spread whereby firebrands (i.e. burning pieces of vegetation or other combustible materials) are blown into unburnt fuels and ignite separate new ‘spot fire'"
Storey et al. 2020
Albini, F. A. (1983). Potential spotting distance from wind-driven surface fires (Vol. 309). US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station.
frames.gov/documents/beha… Image
This is an incredibly interesting paper:

Pitts, W. M. (1991). Wind effects on fires. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 17(2), 83-134.
doi.org/10.1016/0360-1… Image
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!