Merde I look so young...As I am sure you by now know, I am nothing but a worrier, and a bit younger somewhere in another universe far, far away. Anyway, if you listen to the podcast, and not many do 😂 buzzsprout.com/1017043/9888382
You'll be left short handed this week because I omit a very important quote. Let me make good on this omission, you see, I have a soul mate in the prolific but often misunderstood Italian soccer player Pippo Inzaghi, the second highest scorer in all European club competitions.
Alex Ferguson claimed "he was born offside" such was his ability to be precariously found just on the edge (of reason)...no finer distinction and from no greater source...in today's VAR world I fear his goals might have been chalked off. The diff perhaps btw bull & bear mkts?
For goals scored in the Champions' League he stands behind only Ronaldo, Messi, Lewandowski, Raúl and Benzema. LEGEND. In my 2012 investment letter, I quoted him saying “the tension is always the same...I hoped to become less agitated with time, but this is also my strength”.
I suspect he would have made a fine macro manager.
@writes_sweeney continues his investment education by watching HBO's Succession. Are hedge funds petty or the Guardian Dogs of Capitalism? I favour the latter and respond in a typical Ayn Rand manner. Never apologise for the wealth created by your intellectual graft, never...
The investment discussion goes back to 1979-82 and 2005 to ask how long for the bull market in the US Treasury market? I accept that bond yields will rise over the next 40 years, whippety do! But I warn that nascent bulls protect their latent bounty of profit with enormous moats
So investors seeking to capture profit from a bear market in Ts better beware. Adopt paradoxical investment techniques to capture the upside. I explain in this week's show. And somewhere in the mix we discuss African jeep safari research trips and the prejudice of the present.
Tyson v.s Hendry and landing on St Barts
How good are the present crop of hedge fund managers?
The Guard Dogs of Capitalism
Principles before Profits?
Eclectica Report October 2005
Code Red in the US Treasury Market
Book Club
African Research Adventure with Reinhardt & Rogoff
You ready for this ?
Right, let's begin
I am I, and you are You
And just cause you don't see me
doesn't mean I'm not there
And just because I'm in Heaven
Doesn't mean I don't Care
One day we'll meet...You and I
You'll Step out of the Darkness
And I'll be standing in the light
I've always been watching you...
Dogs of Capitalism, snarl, bark, bark, gnash, gnash...
I thought I might turn yesterday's thread into theatre
What's today's fog ?
The power - the supremacy - of the Chinese state "they got this"...
The allure of buying the washout in Chinese tech.
US CPI rising at 1982 levels
The shock of bond yields
The ignorance of the collapsing spread between the short and the long end ?
I'm gonna read The Invisible Man for inspiration. He would know how to respond...
@GeorgeGammon recently asked me..Why did you give up macro ?
Because financial danger to the many has become a signal to shut off their sight, suspend their judgment pursue an unaltered course to the brink, on the unstated premise that the danger will always remain unreal owing to the supposed super-sovereign power of the central banks
And their cronies in fin media spooning their spider lullabies that « they got this ». They’re like a foghorn at the centre of the financial universe, blowing the unwary investor, not to sound a warning, but to summon the fog once more.
In this week's podcast, I go all existential to reveal my conversations with inanimate objects in generating macro narrative - I examine the dollar-yen cross - and go all paranoid schizophrenic "Could it really trade thro' 155 if not return to 200 ???" my voices ask?
Don't short the yen quite yet...but my medical examiner's certificate tells me that if the direction persists and we take out 125 / 135 the power to the upside would be so considerable that you would need to check your macro premises
So these aren't projections but rather my attempt at throwing light on the inspiration for macro trades - think of it like method acting for macro projections and Me? Well I'm the methodman dropping some beats inside my head...
@ziadaboujamra who cares to procrastinate re Chin property when internet names are already down 2/3rds and my rational side really wants to agree that 60% bears are buying opp.s except I’m old enough to have wasted a decade trying to buy euro / global telcos on that premise
I’ve come to recognise that sometimes, and I promise that its more the exception than the rule, but sometimes stocks are more like a promise struggling to be fulfilled…
That sometimes, fallen angel stocks take on the properties of dead phosphorescence, radiating impotent, borrowed energy. Sometimes…
It's Friday...are you ready for an epic adventure? If you can peel your eyes away from the closing candle formation on the yield of the US Treasury as it battles an obvious key level, I got a new podcast just out with co-conspirator, @writes_sweeney
Find out why i was channeling The Beatles back in 2005. Paul was sorrowful as the band’s commercial infighting saw them disintegrate just as the French were demanding that their wartime allies send them gold and not all this funny dollar money...gratitude ?
I explain my fear of financial meteors and recount a tale that sees men in kilts wading through pools of reindeer blood…how can you not tune in ??