#ONStorm #ONwx Wow... the model data this evening is quite something if you were hoping for a good snowstorm across Southern Ontario on Monday.

All of the major models (NAM, GEM (Canadian) and GFS) have a notable westward trend in the track of the system.
Still waiting on the European model but it had this same western trend in earlier runs so we expect it will agree.

What does this mean for us? Well, confidence is growing for a very impactful snowstorm across Eastern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe...
with widespread totals between 20-40cm. Depending on if the more westerly track continues, we may have to start talking about bringing areas as far west as London, Barrie and Muskoka into the significant snowfall accumulation. However, there's lots of time for this to change.
We'll keep you updated once we take a look at the latest data in the morning. We plan to have a more detailed forecast out sometime Saturday evening. Stay tuned!

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More from @IWeatherON

17 Jan
#ONStorm #ONwx 11:10PM - Sun, Jan 16, 2022:

The snow has started to make its way into our region late this evening. We are also seeing this very sharp gradient setting up on the northwestern edge of the system. Image
This is why we had so much uncertainty with the expected accumulation in this area. You can see that London is currently under a very intense band of snow but just a few kilometers to the northwest and there’s barely a flake.
At this point, it looks like our forecast is lining up fairly good based on the current radar. The snow has started a little earlier than expected but that shouldn’t affect the actual totals.
Read 5 tweets
17 Jan
#ONStorm #ONwx After reviewing the latest high-resolution data this evening, we're becoming quite concerned about the GTA around Lake Ontario into Eastern Ontario.

Models are showing intense snowfall rates of 5-10cm PER HOUR (yes, that's in one hour). Image
Combined with wind gusts approaching 50-80km/h will lead to potentially dangerous blizzard conditions along the Lake Ontario shoreline and parts of Eastern Ontario. The worst conditions will start around 3 am and continue until noon.
If possible, you should avoid any non-essential travel through the affected area until at least the late afternoon. Highway and road closures are likely even for some major highways in the GTA, Niagara region and Eastern Ontario.
Read 5 tweets
17 Jan
#ONStorm #ONwx Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, January 17, 2022

Find your chance of a snow day here: instantweather.ca/articles/2022/… Image
NOTE: School boards have already started announcing cancellations tonight. We will keep an updated list of cancellations within the snow day forecast.
If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.
Read 7 tweets
16 Jan
#ONStorm #ONwx UPDATE: Monday’s Snowstorm Shifts Further West Bringing the Threat of 20+cm of Snow Into the GTA and Central Ontario; Up to 50cm of Snow Possible for Niagara and Eastern Ontario

Read here: instantweather.ca/articles/2022/… Image
Once again, we ask you to please *read* the entire forecast as many of your questions and concerns will be answered there. This is a very complex system and just reading the headline or looking at the map won't be that helpful.
We included lots of details about what could happen along with a detailed timeline graphic for each region. Taking that 5-10 minutes to read the forecast is a worthwhile investment to ensure you're properly informed.
Read 5 tweets
16 Jan
#ONStorm #ONwx You may have seen a 'storm chip' forecast circulating on social media for the Maritimes.

We've had many requests from the community to bring the storm chip forecast to Ontario. So we've done just that... introducing our first 'Storm Chips & Hot Cocoa' forecast! Image
Clearly, this isn't meant to be a scientific forecast by any means. Storm chips tend to be more of an Atlantic Canada tradition, however, it appears to be catching on here. We figured why not put out something a little more light-hearted to ease the stress of this snowstorm.
We aim to be a family-friendly page so we used a drink that everyone of all different ages (including children) can legally enjoy. But for those who need something a little stronger to get through this, feel free to convert it to your preferred adult drink. ;)
Read 5 tweets
16 Jan
#ONStorm #ONwx Gooood morning everyone!

We’ve been continuously going over the latest data for the significant snowstorm affecting Southern Ontario late tonight into Monday.
The models continue to trend with a slightly more western track which means higher snowfall totals are possible. Those in our ‘uncertain’ zone will likely see more snow than shown on our map from last night (included in the tweet). Image
As we mentioned, this area has a very tight gradient between no snow and very heavy snow so changes are expected.

We’re looking at bumping the Hamilton, Toronto and Kawartha Lakes region up to the 25-40cm range on our map.
Read 5 tweets

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